Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Energy Market Commentary


November crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates around the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 92.39. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 89.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.62. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 100.73. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 90.96. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 89.79.


November heating oil was higher overnight due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.46 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November extends last week’s decline the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 298.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.46. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 326.33. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 302.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 298.64.


November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it rebound off last Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November extends last week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 265.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.02. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 295.27. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 270.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 265.90.


November Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends last Friday’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 3.199 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday’s low crossing at 2.923 would renew the decline off this month’s high. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 3.199. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.300. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 2.923. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 2.802.


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