At the beginning of the second quarter, I put out a special report on gold and highlighted how the World Cup portfolio has had an 80% success record in that market during that time frame. I am happy to report that the second quarter of 2014 kept that winning streak alive with the recent move in gold and added to the profitability of the World Cup portfolio.
Well traders, as we rapidly approach the end of June and the beginning of the third quarter it is time to find out which market is going to be hot. Throughout the history of the World Cup portfolio (since 2007), the third quarter tends to be the killer quarter for soybeans.
In the past, using the strategy from the World Cup portfolio, soybeans has seen an 85% success rate in the third quarter. Now, that's not to say that this coming quarter is going to be 85% correct, but certainly the odds would favor that.
You can have access to the signals for the World Cup portfolio by joining MarketClub right here.
Here are the trading results for soybeans in the third quarter of every year since 2007, using the signals from the World Cup model portfolio strategy.
2007 $2,800.00
2008 $22,900.00
2009 $125.00
2010 $4,300.00
2011 $8,175.00
2012 $13,462.50
2013 -$650.00
As you can see from the numbers, 2008 was an outstanding year. Besides 2009 and 2013, most of the other years produced profits that were quite exceptional. As late as 2012, you would have produced a healthy return on your initial margin.
Like everything in life and certainly in trading, there are no guarantees, but when you look at the odds, this may be a good strategy to employ in the third quarter.
Presently the margin requirements for trading one contract of soybeans are an initial deposit of $3,300 and that must be maintained at $3,000, otherwise you will receive a margin call from your broker (insider tip: put up double margin that way you avoid margin calls).
The contract specs are as follows: one contract equals 5000 bushels of soybeans. (don't worry, they will not be delivered to your doorstep). The pricing unit is in cents, with a quarter cent move equaling $12.50 a contract. A one cent move equals $50, and a one dollar move equals $5,000. The contract expiration months are: January, March, May, July, August, September and November. For our purposes, we'll be trading the most liquid contract and the one that has the most volume and open interest (number of contracts held by various parties).
You can help lower your overall risk through diversification by using the entire World Cup portfolio. The World Cup portfolio has made money every year since we've been tracking it from 2007.
Here are the trading results using the entire World Cup portfolio.
2007* + 60.8%
2008 +501.6%
2009 +48.5%
2010 +35.3%
2011 +186.7%
2012 +57.6%
2013 +77.1%
(*2007 was only tracked from Q3 to the end of the year.)
Every success in Q3,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
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