PH unlikely to meet 2012 trade goals
By Riza T. Olchondra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
1:03 am | Monday, November 5th, 2012
Shipping containers of Philippine products for export sit stacked along the docks of the international container port in Manila on September 11, 2012. Exporters are aiming for an 11 percent annual growth in exports starting in 2013 to hit $120 billion in 2016. AFP PHOTO/JAY DIRECTO
MANILA, Philippines—With exports expected to fall below target this year, the pressure is on for a turnaround starting next year to meet the country’s medium-term goals, officials said.
“We just have to work harder since our growth target next year will be higher than what we initially targeted. There is a plan for improving processes, developing new markets, and such. The key factor is if the markets will absorb more,” Philippine Exporters Confederation president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said in a phone interview.
Exports will probably end the year with 5 percent to 6 percent growth as electronics, which make up the bulk of shipments, “could be negative,” Luis added.
Exporters are aiming for an 11 percent annual growth in exports starting in 2013 to hit $120 billion in 2016.
In 2010, exports were valued at $51.498 billion.
The goal was based on the assumption of a 10-percent growth in outbound shipments this year from last year’s $47.967 billion. But even Trade Secretary Gregory Domingo said that, “more realistically,” exports revenue may grow between 5 to 7 percent.
And with this year’s result likely to be lower than expected, the country’s exports will have to grow at rates faster than initially targeted starting next year in order to meet the $120-billion target of 2016, the Export Development Council (EDC) said.
“We can still double up [exports] by 2016, [but in the years ahead] growth should be about 14 or 15 percent [a year],” EDC executive director Senen Perlada told reporters last week.
Semiconductors and Electronics Industry of the Philippines Inc. (Seipi) president Ernesto Santiago said earlier they expected exports of electronic products to be “flat” this year given the continuing drop in outbound shipments.
Seipi initially set a 10 to 15 percent growth target for exports of electronic products this year, but it reset its projection to between 5 and 7 percent in July, citing a weak global recovery affecting demand for shipments.
Ortiz-Luis said that while electronic exports are still down from a year ago, the Philippine Exporters Confederation is optimistic that next year will be better.
Economic woes in the US and the EU may not fester for long, Luis said. “Electronics is on the rebound.”
From January to August, outbound shipments of electronic products declined by 8.13 percent to $15.59 billion from last year.
Aggregate merchandise exports as of end-August, meanwhile, reached $35.283 billion—up 5.4 percent from last year.
The Philippines is aiming for an average 7 to 8 percent growth in domestic output a year from 2010 to 2016 to curb poverty, based on the Philippine Development Plan.
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