Friday, February 28, 2014

China’s manufacturing slows to eight-month low








BEIJING—China’s manufacturing activities expanded at the slowest pace since June, amid government efforts to rein in credit and investment growth, according to the industry group China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.


The federation on Saturday released the purchasing managers index for February, which slid to 50.2, down from 50.5 in the previous month.


The measure is a 100-point scale on which numbers above 50 indicate increasing activity.


China’s economic activity has slowed steadily as the government tries to reduce reliance on investment in industry and infrastructure and encourage more sustainable growth based on domestic consumption.


Analyst Zhang Liqun said the February data could have been distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday, when factories shut down for two weeks when workers went home in late January and early February.


RELATED STORY


Asian shares mostly down after China data



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Tags: China , Investment , manufacturing



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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery


We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.


Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.


Gold Futures


Gold Futures--- Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average basically settling unchanged for the trading week going out this Friday afternoon in New York down about $8 at 1,323 after prices hit 1,345 in Wednesday’s trade as the trend still continues to the upside. I think this is just a possible pause as prices have had a heckuva rally in the last 2 months and I have been recommending a long position in gold for quite some time while placing my stop below the 10 day low which currently stands around 1,315 which is only $8 away so that stop is very tight with a high probability of getting clipped at that price on Monday, however continue to focus on gold and silver to the upside and if you’re lucky enough to get some panic selling I would still be looking at buying as 2013 created the low in gold prices in my opinion.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Silver Futures


Silver futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average finishing down around $.70 for the trading week going out this Friday afternoon in New York around 21.13 in the May contract. I have been recommending a long position when silver broke out a couple weeks ago above 20.50 an ounce and we basically consolidated after that breakout occurred & I still do believe prices are headed higher due to the fact that commodities and stocks have bullish trends currently, so continue to play this to the upside. If you’re looking to get involved in the silver market and futures are too risky for you look at bull call option spreads for the month of July which will limit your risk to what the premium costs and allows you to stay in the market for the next 4 months as volatility will continue to get higher in my opinion. Silver futures have been bottoming in recent months remembering the fact that we traded in the mid-30s in 2013 at one point so I think prices at this level still look very cheap especially if you have a longer-term view and if you need help structuring your portfolio in the precious metals I will be more than happy to assist you in those needs

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Soybean Futures


Soybean futures in the November contract which is considered the new crop will be harvested this fall and now is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average which has not happened in quite some time telling you that the trend has definitely turned to the upside with a wild trading week this week in Chicago sending prices above 11.80 in Thursday’s trade only to settle at 11.55 reversing nearly $.30 as profit taking was blamed. Soybean futures finished higher trading around 11.68 a bushel and finishing higher by about $.25 for the trading week continuing its bullish trend. Prices in Thursday’s trade hit 5 month highs as the drought in central Brazil is having investors think that there will be crop damage therefore alternating the supply/ demand tables as the commodities in general have also rallied as the bottom looks to have been created in 2013. All commodity markets go in cycles as we had a very bearish 2013 but I do believe 2014 is a different story & we will have inflation down the road and if you’re still bullish the soybeans I would continue to place my stop below the 10 day low as I do think prices are headed higher and that number currently is around 11.35 risking around $.25 from today’s level or $1,250 per contract.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING


Coffee Futures


Coffee Futures---This is an actual email that I received from a major coffee producer in Brazil that was sent to me late Thursday night--- “I have been following your comments and suggestions on barchart´s page and have found quite accurate. I live in Machado, state of Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica producing area in Brazil and the lack of rain mixed with unusual hot temperatures are quite scary. However, the worse is yet to come. Even if it the amount of rain gets back to normality by March and April, coffee trees are no longer capable to produce enough energy for the flowering season that must happen between October and November. Having said that, 2015´s crop could be a total disaster if on top of that frost decides to show up by late May.


Coffee could face some corrections but price has no other place to go but up as Brazil alone is consuming around 25 million bags per year. If we´re down to 50 million bags this year ( I like to be optimistic) that will be quite interesting to watch.


I continue to recommend a long position either with a futures contract or some type of bull call option spread for the month of July as 2.00 a pound is the next level of resistance as prices closed right as new contract highs at 180.30 a pound in the May contract.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING


Sugar Futures


Sugar futures finished lower this Friday afternoon closing around 17.66 a pound in the May contract but rallied about 65 points for the week all due to the drought worsening in central Brazil which is cutting crop estimates which is pushing prices right near 3 ½ month highs. Sugar futures have rallied from 15.00 a pound in late January to all the way above 18.00 in yesterday’s trade as this market remains bullish and I have been recommending a long position when the breakout occurred at 16.58 I would place my stop loss at the 10 day low of 16.00 if you are long. Sugar futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average; however the chart structure is very poor as volatility has entered in the last couple of weeks having wild trading sessions of 80 points or more so make sure you have a proper money management technique in place limiting your risk in case you are wrong but I do believe prices are headed higher.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR


Orange Juice Futures


Orange juice futures in the May contract are very quiet in New York trading around 146 still stuck in a 13 week consolidation between 138 – 150 looking to breakout soon in my opinion as my theory states the longer the consolidation the more powerful the move and in my opinion I think the move will be to the upside as the commodity bull market are underway. Orange juice futures have outstanding chart structure allowing you place a tight stop regardless of what your opinion is as prices are still trading just a hair above its 20 day but about 700 points higher from its 100 day moving average. The chart continually seems to be grinding higher forming a triangle pattern at this point but look for the breakout at 150 then I would be recommending taking a long position in the futures contract placing your stop below 138 risking around $1,800 per contract. Many of the soft commodities have rallied in recent weeks especially coffee and sugar due to the fact that there’s a drought in central Brazil as Brazil also is the largest orange juice producer in the world as well and I do think orange juice prices will follow coffee and sugar higher. Orange juice futures have been in a bullish trend since bottoming out at the 52-week low on 10/29/13 at 121.10 and is currently 21% higher than that day while only about 3% from its contract high which was hit on June 11th at 151.70 and that’s where I think a lot of buy stops will be placed which could propel this market up to 160 rather quickly.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING


Corn Futures


Corn futures are barely trading over their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices have been consolidating in the last week or so in a very tight trading range unable to break below 4.60 also unable to break above 4.70 a bushel trading around 4.69 in the December contract and I’ve been recommending a long position in this market as I do think there’s an opportunity prices could shoot higher pretty quickly due to the fact that many of the commodity markets have moved higher including soybeans and soybean meal which is used as a feed product as well as corn. The chart structure in corn is outstanding at this time and I do recommend a long position placing your stop loss below the 10 day low of 4.54 a bushel risking around $.10 cents or $500 per contract as we enter the volatile season in corn as spring planting is right around the corner here in Chicago & we are still extremely cold and wet. Traders are keeping a close eye on the next USDA crop report which comes out on March 10th and that will show planting intentions as it will be interesting to see what the final figure comes to be as estimates are around 92 million acres. If you are bullish corn prices there are several different ways to approach this market as the 1st one being the simplest which is buying an outright futures contract for the December month which is considered the new crop and will be harvested this fall or look at simple bull call option spreads limiting your risk to what the premium costs.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING


Wheat Futures


Wheat futures in the May contract are trading barely above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average hitting a 2 week low in yesterday’s sharp selloff reversing today to finish up about $.10 to trade at 6.00 a bushel finishing slightly lower for the trading week. I’m recommending sitting on the sidelines in this market and waiting for a better chart pattern to develop as currently the trend is mixed as wheat futures sold off from $7.20 down to recent lows of about 5.55 and right now it’s in no man’s land as I like to find a trend that is strong & this trend is not strong and by far is the weakest out of the grain complex due to the fact that wheat’s fundamentals are not bullish as excellent crops have been grown around the world and supplies are not tight so I remain much more bullish corn, soy meal, and soybeans than I am wheat so sit on the sidelines and wait for some better chart structure to develop.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING


Oat Futures


Oat Futures--- I’ve been talking about the oat market in previous blogs due to the fact that these are all-time high prices which is really amazing in my opinion as I do believe that will push up other grain prices including the corn market which I currently do have a bullish recommendation as the oat market finished up about $.30 for the week in the May contract closing at 4.61 and actually hitting $5 in Wednesday’s trade all due to supply concerns and poor crops. If you look at the chart it had outstanding chart structure several months ago & formed a nice rounding bottom paying you off if you were smart enough to get in around 3.30 a bushel as prices still have not hit a 2 week low in nearly 2 months.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: AWFUL


Live Cattle Futures


Live cattle futures in the April contract exploded to the upside finishing higher by 400 points this week to close at 145.15 a pound hitting all-time highs as the meat sector continues its bullish run and I’m still recommending a long position in this market as I think prices are going higher as the chart structure remains excellent allowing you to place your stop loss at 140.80 as the top has not been created in my opinion. The chart structure in the cattle market is outstanding at this time and those are the markets I like to focus on as the demand for beef is outstanding at this time and who knows how high this market could go, but in my opinion 150 is a real possibility in the next couple weeks.


Feeder cattle prices in the April contract rose 200 points this week to close around 173.20 pound also hitting new all-time highs and I still recommend a long position in feeder cattle was well as it’s much easier to trade with the trend than try to pick a top in this market as prices still look to go higher. Many times tops are created with extreme volatility like natural gas in the March contract this week which went straight up and straight down, however the meat complex has outstanding chart structure where it’s just grinding higher and that tells me that it top has not been created.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


U.S. Dollar Futures


The U.S dollar sold off sharply this Friday afternoon finishing down 50 points at 79.80 hitting a 9 week low looking to retest the contract lows which were hit 4 months ago around 97.50 as I’m recommending a short position in the U.S Dollar Index placing my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 80.60 risking around $800 per contract as the trend now has turned bearish in my opinion. The commodity markets certainly like the fact that the U.S dollar is headed lower as well as the bond market rallying sending interest rates to new recent lows as it reminds me of 2006 all over again when stocks and commodities moved higher as the U.S equity market hit all-time highs in the S&P 500. Remember when you trade you want to try to keep it simple and this trade is extremely simple by recommending selling one futures contract and continuing to place your stop at the 10 day low as I do think contract lows will be breached next week as the Euro currency finished up over 100 points this afternoon to close above 1.38 also hitting new recent highs with 1.40 next resistance point.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


S&P 500 Futures


The S&P 500 in the March contract hit another all-time record high trading higher by 2 points at 1855 rallying about 16 points in the last 2 trading days as investors are extremely bullish this market due to the fact of low interest rates and a weakening U.S dollar pushing commodity prices higher which also helped push up stock prices. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside as this bull market continues in my opinion as Friday’s remain the most bullish day of the week in equities as investors continue to think that higher prices are ahead with the next major target at 1900 in the next possible couple of months as mergers and acquisitions are taking place with solid earnings across the board and nowhere else to go due to the fact of extremely low interest rates so look to continue to buy the S&P 500 in my opinion especially on dips.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID


NASDAQ Futures


NASDAQ futures continued their torrid pace to the upside trading higher by another 15 points in early trade at 3716 hitting a 14 year high before profit taking came in sending prices slightly lower for the trading session but it looks to me that we have a high possibility of breaking all-time highs above 5000 come year end as the technology sector is clearly on fire with a lot of positive news and the fact that stock prices aren’t out of whack speaking of valuations, however there are certain companies like Tesla motors and some Internet stocks that are highly overvalued, however, as a whole prices are not out of control like they were in 1999 and I remain bullish this market recommending bull call spreads for the month of July or buying a futures contract as the bull markets in commodities and stocks are continuing.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Where Should You Place Your Stops? Identifying where stops exist in the market is an important lesson to learn because placing a correct stop loss that will improve your trading tremendously over the course of time. Nobody knows for sure where stops are located, however I have learned a couple of things over my 20 year career and I have a general idea where stops are placed and why. Buy stops are generally placed above the 10 day high as well as above contract highs as the bulls generally are buying more and the short selling are getting stopped out.


Sell stops are usually placed at the 10 day low as well as below contract lows which means the shorts are adding to their position and the longs are getting stopped out as they figure they are wrong. The other common places to have stops are at certain moving averages such as the 20 or 100 day moving average where traders think either the trend is turning bullish or the market is starting to break down. Placing stops to close or not at important price levels can get very frustrating because the market can stop you out and then go the direction that you thought leaving you behind and out of the market. Placing stops is one of the most important aspects of trading in my opinion.


If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com


SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS


There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.


Michael Seery, President

Seery Futures

http://ift.tt/1fGCqDc

Twitter–@seeryfutures

Phone #: (800) 615-7649

mseery@seeryfutures.com



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Syndicates use ‘mules’ to get cash from ATMs



FILE PHOTO



Syndicates involved in automated teller machine (ATM) fraud have started to deploy “mules” to illegally withdraw cash using ATM cards that have been cloned mostly in shopping malls, according to an officer of the Philippine National Police’s Anti-Cybercrime Group.


In the few years that it has been monitoring ATM fraud, the group has uncovered suspects who turned out to have been paid by syndicates to withdraw cash using cloned cards, said Chief Insp. Jay Guillermo, the head of the group’s intelligence and investigation unit.


And since they know they are being monitored by authorities, the syndicate bosses have resorted to recruiting other people to do the withdrawing, exactly like a “mule,” said Guillermo, employing the term that anti-illegal drug enforcement authorities use to refer to a person who carries illegal drugs for a drug syndicate.


From PSG to mule


Guillermo said investigators were looking into the possibility that Raphael Marcial, the Presidential Security Group (PSG) soldier who was arrested last week, was a mule sent out by an ATM fraud syndicate.


When he was arrested last Friday, Marcial was found to be carrying a scanner device that police said was used to clone ATM cards as well as a number of cloned cards bearing different names.


Guillermo said Marcial’s circumstances indicated that he was a mule, but declined to give other details in deference to the investigation being conducted by the Makati police.


According to an investigator, the initial investigation has found that Marcial had incurred huge gambling losses in a casino and was forced into the ATM fraud trade to pay off his creditor.


Paid commissions


Marcial, a Navy officer and a graduate of the Philippine Military Academy, has been charged with violating the e-Commerce Law.


According to Guillermo, mules are paid commissions by the syndicates responsible for the ATM bank fraud which is carried out through the cloning of ATM cards by installing card readers and hidden cameras in ATMs to capture data from an ATM card.


He said the syndicates often targeted for card cloning ATMs located in the periphery of malls or boutiques, and often struck just before payday.


“If payday falls on the 15th of the month, they’d strike before that,” he said.


“Many employees make withdrawals in malls. So without people even noticing it, [the fraudsters] fit in skimming devices during early morning, or in the evening,” he said.


Knowing what they do now, mall management should post guards, or install surveillance cameras in the vicinity of these ATMs, Guillermo said.


P220 million lost in 2013


Guillermo could not say how many ATM fraud syndicates are operating in the country.


At a hearing last Wednesday of the Senate public order committee, officials said some P220 million was lost to ATM fraud in 2013. They said card cloning activities began in 2011.


Guillermo, who showed in PowerPoint presentation during the hearing the different ways by which card cloning is carried out, said skimming devices were brought in from either the United States or Europe.


“They’re easy to bring in because they look like pagers or cell phones,” he said.


Instead of focusing only on contraband, customs personnel should be on the lookout for these devices in the baggage of incoming passengers at the airports, Guillermo said.


Better technology


He also strongly agreed with Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Circular No. 808 mandating all banks to shift from the magnetic strip to the EMV chip technology for ATM cards by January 2017.


Developed by Europay, MasterCard and Visa, EMV uses payment chip cards that contain an embedded microprocessor that provides strong security features and other capabilities not possible with traditional magnetic-strip cards, according to www.emvco.com.


“The magnetic strip is prone to fraud,” Guillermo said. “The EMV technology is better because it has many security features.”


For better coordination with the police, he said banks should not think twice about reporting ATM fraud to the authorities.


RELATED STORIES


Banks adopt EMV chip technology to counter ATM card ‘cloning’


Banks urged: Return money in ATM scams


PSG man in ATM caper relieved





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Traders’ sentiment deteriorates in Q1


Bangko Sentral survey shows weakest reading in 10 quarters


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Business sentiment deteriorated in the first quarter of 2014, dampened by the trend of faster inflation, financial market volatility and disruptions to economic activities caused by the recent natural disaster.


The business confidence index for the current quarter stood at +37.8 percent, the weakest reading in 10 quarters, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported Friday as it released the results of the latest Business Expectation Survey.


The latest index was weaker compared with the +52.3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2013 and the +41.5 percent for the first quarter of 2013.


BSP Assistant Governor Ma. Cyd Tuaño Amador said the weaker sentiment of the business sector was expected, explaining that the survey was conducted at a time when concerns were high about how affected areas would recover from Supertyphoon “Yolanda.”


The natural calamity, reported to be one of the strongest typhoons to hit land, devastated central Philippines in November.


The latest quarterly survey on business sentiment was conducted by the BSP from Jan. 9 to Feb. 20 among 1,525 firms across the country. The survey had a response rate of 83.1 percent.


“The adverse effects of ‘Yolanda,’ together with the increase in oil prices and volatility of the financial market, had a toll on the morale of businesses,” Amador said in a press briefing.


Amador, however, stressed that the positive confidence index for the first quarter meant that optimistic businesses still outnumbered the pessimistic ones.


The deterioration of the index likewise came amid an uptick in inflation, which hit a two-year high of 4.2 percent in January.


The acceleration of inflation was blamed largely on disruptions to supply of food and other commodities resulting from the natural calamity. Inflation is expected to hover in the 4-percent territory this year compared with the average 3 percent last year.


The drop in the business confidence index also happened as financial markets of emerging economies reeled from an outflow of foreign portfolio capital. The outflow was attributed to the tapering of the stimulus program by the US Federal Reserve amid expectations of an improving American economy.


According to Teresita Deveza, deputy director of the BSP’s economic statistics department, the decline in the business sentiment index was partly due to the seasonality factor. Businesses tend to experience lower sales in the first quarter after a spike in consumer spending during the Christmas season, she said in the same press briefing.



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Tags: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas , Business , Business Expectation Survey , Traders’ sentiment



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Stocks continue to rise








Philippine stocks closed higher for a third-straight session Friday on month-end window-dressing.


The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended up 1.1 percent, or 70.2 points, to 6,424.99 while the broader all-shares index was up 0.89 percent, or 34.26 points, to 3,866.66.


All subcounters closed in the green, led by property firms, which gained 2.43 percent, followed by industrial companies, up 1.6 percent.


“Buying demand has been sustained as companies continue to release positive earnings guidance,” Nisha Alicer of DA Market Securities Inc., said.


The analyst cautioned, however, that overbought indicators and rising valuations might prompt profit-taking in the near-term.


“Meanwhile, laggards are starting to pick up and look to keep the market buoyant,” Alicer said.


Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed that there were 104 advancers as against 57 decliners, while 51 companies were unchanged.


A total of 1.59 billion shares changed hands valued at P11.04 billion.


The top traded stock was port tycoon Enrique Razon’s International Container Terminal Services Inc., which dropped 2.07 percent to P96.95 each. This was followed by JG Summit Holdings (+1.63 percent to P46.90), Ayala Land Inc. (+4.45 percent to P30.50), Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (+0.45 percent to P2,696) and Megaworld Corp. (+1.2 percent to P4.20).


Alicer said investors were positioning for stocks with March dividend ex-dates while gaming was an area investors were looking into. Miguel R. Camus



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Tags: Business , stocks



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BIR tasked to collect P2T by ’15 to fund projects

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The Bureau of Internal Revenue is tasked to collect P2 trillion every year starting 2015, as the government is pressed to spend more on infrastructure and social services to combat poverty.


The Department of Finance, parent agency of the BIR, said boosting the annual tax collection to P2 trillion by next year would be quite a challenge, but said it was possible as the government addresses tax evasion across sectors.


The World Bank estimates that the government loses about P450 billion every year in potential revenues due to tax evasion.


BIR Commissioner Kim Henares said earlier that the tax bureau had been responding to the need to plug revenue leakages by auditing various sectors and chasing after more people and corporate entities suspected of tax evasion.


The BIR breached the P1-trillion collection mark in 2012, when its total annual tax collection reached P1.06 trillion.


Its collection grew further in 2013 to P1.217 trillion, which, however, fell below the official target for the year of P1.25 trillion.


The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) sets the macroeconomic and fiscal targets of the government, including tax collection.


The DBCC has yet to decide on the official 2015 tax collection target of the BIR, although Purisima said a goal of at least P2 trillion would be appropriate.


Purisima cited the need to substantially boost spending on infrastructure and social services.


Public infrastructure spending in the Philippines currently stands at less than 3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. The average in Southeast Asia is 5 percent.


The Aquino administration aims to boost public infrastructure spending to at least 5 percent of GDP by 2016.


The Philippines is also pressed to boost spending for social services given the country’s high poverty rate of 25.2 percent as of 2012.


The government aims to reduce this level to 18 to 20 percent by 2016, the end of Mr. Aquino’s term.


Purisima said that while tax collection has been growing at a robust pace, there was room to accelerate revenue growth.


Although the BIR already has filed over 200 tax evasion cases since 2010, Purisima said tax evasion remained rampant.


He said some business sectors that reported significant growth had not been registering commensurate increase in tax collection.


In the real property sector, for example, Purisima said construction grew by 11.1 percent last year but the sector’s aggregate tax payment contracted by 7.5 percent to P5.5 billion.



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PSE sets broker anonymity regime








The Philippine Stock Exchange is considering to embrace within this year a trading regime where stockbrokers can trade anonymously, ahead of the originally targeted March 2015 rollout.


Broker anonymity refers to the practice of not showing the broker identifiers involved in trades at the PSE trading engine, similar to the regime in stock markets in the United States, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand.


By adopting this policy, the PSE aims to attract more investors and improve liquidity.


The PSE said some studies have shown that broker anonymity had positive effects on the market primarily by reducing bid-ask spreads.


“Since we announced our plan to move to a broker anonymous environment, we have been receiving positive feedback from market participants who see the move as a way to attract more investors to trade in our market. Implementing this program this year instead of next year will allow us to experience the upside from this change much earlier,” PSE president Hans Sicat said.


Together with the move to advance the rollout of the broker anonymity regime, the PSE will drop the earlier announced phased implementation of the program. Initially, the PSE was targeting the implementation of Phase 1 of broker anonymity in March 2014, which involves limiting the visibility of broker IDs of matched trades only to brokers and their systems. By removing Phase 1, broker anonymity, once implemented, will make all broker identifiers anonymous to all market participants.


“Even as we are now planning to have broker anonymity implemented this year, we have to evaluate the readiness of the market and various systems for full broker anonymity under the reduced time frame to prepare for this change. We hope to finalize our study over the next weeks and make announcements on the final schedule shortly after that,” Sicat said.


“We would like to assure the investing public that, much like in other markets abroad that have stopped displaying broker IDs for matched trades, surveillance operations will not be affected as regulators will continue to have access to information on broker IDs,” Sicat said. Doris C. Dumlao



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U.S. Economic Growth Lowered To A 2.4 Percent Annual Rate


The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate last quarter, sharply less than first thought, in part because consumers didn't spend as much as initially estimated.


Severe winter weather is expected to further slow the economy in the current quarter. But as temperatures warm, most economists think growth will rebound beginning in the spring.


The Commerce Department on Friday reduced its estimate of economic growth in the October-December quarter from an initial 3.2 percent annual rate. The revised estimate of 2.4 percent annual growth is the weakest quarterly showing since the first quarter of 2013.


A key reason for the downgrade was that consumer spending is now estimated to have expanded at a 2.6 percent annual rate, below the initial estimate of 3.3 percent though still the strongest quarterly spending by consumers in nearly two years.


Economists said the more sluggish pace of consumer spending resulted from bad weather at the end of the year, which cut into vehicle sales, among other purchases. But they pointed to one key point of encouragement in the report: The government's estimate of business investment was revised up to an annual rate of 7.3 percent — the best quarterly showing in a year and sharply higher than the initial 3.8 percent annual rate.


Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that while she expects bad weather to limit this quarter's growth to a tepid annual rate of around 1.7 percent, she's looking for a solid rebound for the rest of the year.


"Due to Mother Nature, quarter one is not going to be anything worth writing home about," Lee wrote in a research note. "The rebound ... and all of that pent-up demand won't show up until the second quarter."


For all of 2013, the economy grew at a lackluster 1.9 percent. Analysts think growth will rebound in 2014, possibly to as high as a 3 percent increase in the gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services.


Growth was held back last year by higher federal taxes and government spending cuts enacted to combat soaring budget deficits. Economists estimate that the squeeze from the government subtracted about 1.5 percentage points from growth last year. If growth does reach 3 percent this year, it would be the strongest performance since the recession ended almost five years ago.


After enduring the deepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the economy has struggled to gain momentum and the weak growth has made it harder for people who lost jobs during the downturn to find work.


The revisions in fourth-quarter growth were the result of updated data that the Commerce Department did not have when it made its first estimate a month ago. Commerce will make one further estimate of fourth-quarter GDP next month.


The biggest factor in the revised estimate of growth last quarter came from the reduction in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity. The revision reduced purchases of durable goods such as autos, non-durable goods and services. Smaller downward revisions came from a reduction in the amount of stockpiles businesses built up, fewer exports, which increased the trade deficit, and weaker state and local government spending.


Government activity was a big drag in the fourth quarter, subtracting 1.1 percentage points from growth. The federal government accounted for 1 percentage point of the reduction, reflecting lower defense spending.


Spending on home construction, one of the economy's standouts in 2013, fell in the fourth quarter. This setback is expected to be temporary and partly a result of the bad weather.


Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Thursday that the Fed still expects the economy to strengthen this year, which would help put more people to work. But she told the Senate Banking Committee that recent economic data have pointed to weaker-than-expected gains in consumer spending and job growth. She said the Fed will be watching to see whether the slowdown proves only a temporary blip caused by severe winter weather.


The Fed is gradually reducing its monthly bond purchases, which have been intended to keep long-term loan rates low to encourage spending and growth. It reduced its original $85 billion monthly pace in December and again in January in $10 billion steps to a current level of $65 billion.


Many economists think that as long as the economy keeps improving, the Fed will keep cutting the bond purchases by $10 billion at each meeting this year until ending the program in December.


But Yellen stressed, as she has before, that the Fed's course is not preset and could be modified if there was a "significant change" in the Fed's outlook.


She again repeated a commitment to keep a key short-term interest rate at a record low "well past" the time unemployment drops below 6.5 percent. The unemployment rate is now 6.6 percent.


By: MARTIN CRUTSINGER

(AP:WASHINGTON) WASHINGTON (AP)



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Daikin bullish on PH prospects

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Daikin Industries Ltd., the world’s leading company in air-conditioning, is bullish on its prospects in the Philippine market.


It expects a 66-percent surge in sales to P1.5 billion for fiscal year ending March 2015, from an expected P900 million in revenue for the current fiscal year.


In a recent briefing, Daikin Airconditioning Philippines deputy division manager Ryuta Hayashibara said the company’s sales may be boosted by the launch of new air-con models with high coefficient of performance (COP), which translates to higher energy savings, and the increase in overall demand for climate control devices.


The company is also increasing the number of dealers for Daikin air-conditioners to 200 by yearend, from the current 150, added Daikin Philippines division manager Jed O. Caburian.


Caburian noted that Daikin air-cons, considered as the “Maserati” of air-cons, were not sold in the usual appliance stores, but through dealers, to ensure the quality of installation.


“We are particular in the way the air-cons are installed. We want our own dealers to install and provide after sales services to customers, We are confident enough with our products that’s why we do not have presence in the usual retail outlets,” he added.


The company, which currently accounts for 30 percent of the air-conditioner market in the Philippines, launched on Thursday 10 new products, of which five will cater to residential needs, and another five will handle the requirements of commercial establishments.


On the average, these air-conditioners reportedly generate 40 percent in energy savings and boast of higher COP.


One of the products launched was the Urusara, a residential type of air-conditioner that also serves as an air purifier and dehumidifier.


It was popular in Japan especially in the aftermath of the 2011 earthquake when the cost of power shot up and energy savings ideas were strongly considered.



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German firm gains toehold in the Philippines








Rehau, a leading German manufacturer of polymer products, has set up a representative office in the Philippines as it looks to further boost sales in the country by tenfold over the next 10 years.


This bullish outlook is anchored on the Philippines’ bright prospects as well as the growing demand for Rehau products in the country, particularly from local manufacturing and construction companies.


“Rehau is optimistic about the economic prospects of the country in the long term. The boom in the construction and real estate [sectors] is promising. We are confident that our quality products will be accepted by the local market because we adhere to safety standards around the world, and global standards that meet reliability and value for money,” said Christopher delos Reyes, head of Rehau’s representative office in the Philippines.


For the past 20 years, Rehau products have been distributed in the country. But this is the first time that a representative office will be put up. At present, the company’s operations in the Philippines is estimated at around 1.5 million euros, or a little over 90 million pesos. The company expects to grow its Philippine business to at least 5 million euros, or about P306 million, in the next three years.


Vijay Jain, chief executive officer of Rehau Pte. Ltd., said it was important for the company to set up a local team in the Philippines, which could account for 20 percent of the company’s total sales in Southeast Asia in the next ten years. At present, the country’s share in sales was just about 5 percent, Jain told reporters Thursday night.


“We think it’s time for us to set up local operations, not just to concentrate on Manila, but to also get into other markets like Cebu and Davao,” Jain explained. “This is a long term commitment on our part because, once we go in, we don’t leave a country.”


The company will focus on the manufacturing, furniture and construction sectors, Jain said.


The company in other parts of the world also serves the automotive market, but it will not do so in the Philippines because Rehau follows certain strategy globally, he added. Rehau will serve only certain car companies, such as those that manufacture Mercedes, BMW and Audi, among others. Amy R. Remo



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JG Summit raises P30B from retail bond offer


Rates for bonds at low end of price guidance


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Gokongwei-led conglomerate JG Summit Holdings Inc. has completed a P30-billion retail bond offering, the biggest bond deal seen in the country in the last four years.


The bonds were listed on the local fixed-income platform of Philippine Dealing and Exchange Corp. on Thursday.


JG Summit’s new bond issue consisted of three tenors, the biggest of which amounting to P24.51 billion went to the tranche of five years and six months with a coupon rate of 5.2317 percent a year. Another P5.31 billion was raised from the issuance of seven-year bonds with a coupon rate of 5.2442 percent a year and P176.34 million from 10-year bonds with a coupon rate of 5.3 a year.


“JG Summit has a strong and well-diversified business portfolio. Our core businesses and investments are all strong businesses with leading market positions in large growing markets. They provide us with a robust cash flow that helps us fund our growth businesses and other new businesses we are looking to invest in,” JG Summit president Lance Gokongwei said.


“We congratulate JG Summit for raising this P30-billion bond issuance at the tightest end of its pricing guidance on the five-, seven- and 10-year tenors. With overwhelming demand across institutional and retail investors, the issuer had to upsize the transaction from the original announced P20 billion,” HSBC chief executive Wick Veloso said.


BDO Capital and Investment Corp., BPI Capital Corp., First Metro Investment Corp. and Standard Chartered Bank were also joint underwriters. The co-lead underwriters were RCBC Capital Corp., United Coconut Planters Bank, Development Bank of the Philippines and SB Capital Investment Corp. China Bank and Land Bank were also participating underwriters.


Net proceeds from the bond issuance will be used by the company to partially finance its acquisition of Manila Electric Co. shares and for general corporate purposes.


The issuance marked JG Summit’s return to the local bond market for the first time since a P9-billion issue in 2009.


The JG Summit bonds have obtained a PRS Aaa rating from the Philippine Ratings Services Corp., which cited JG Summit’s “strong liquidity, sound capitalization, solid market position of its core business and the good quality of its management.”


Cesar Crisol, president of PDEx’ parent PDS Group, said: “The entry of the JG Summit bonds provides investors with another highly rated instrument for which to diversify their bond portfolios. And on this note, we salute JG Summit for returning to the market with this issuance. Your endeavors toward the capital market are an additional medium to make life better for every Juan.”


“And as a market infrastructure, we assure you of our equal commitment to investor protection, efficient market systems and responsiveness to your needs. This organized secondary market strives to provide the environment for your bondholders to invest and divest your instruments through licensed intermediaries with confidence,” Crisol said.



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Naia rehab seen completed by ’15

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The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) expects to complete the rehabilitation of the aging Terminal 1 of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (Naia) by January 2015.


According to Transportation Secretary Joseph Abaya, the rehabilitation of the country’s main airport, which started last month, will be over in time for the Apec Summit that year.


“Considering that it is the point of entry of most foreign tourists and our many overseas Filipino workers, we recognize the importance of improving these structures,” Abaya said during the induction of the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines’ board of directors.


The plan is moving along, with the installation of new equipment at the Naia Terminal 3 “to make it fully operational by the latter half of this year,” Abaya said.


The terminal 1 rehabilitation is being handled by DMCI Holdings, while work on Terminal 3 is being undertaken by Japan’s Takenaka Corp. Rehabilitation work on Terminal 3 is also considered crucial because the facility is only operating at half its full capacity of 13 million passengers a year.


“By then, we can transfer some international airlines from Terminal 1 to Terminal 3, which will make way for a less crowded Terminal 1,” Abaya explained.


Moving foreign airlines to Terminal 3, meanwhile, will be up to the carriers, he added. The objective is to bring down the capacity at the congested Naia 1 to its designed capacity of 4 million to 4.5 million passengers, from the current 7 to 8 million passengers.


Built in the 1970s, Terminal 1 currently serves as the gateway for foreign commercial carriers and is one of four terminals within the Naia complex—the country’s busiest airport, serving over 30 million passengers a year.


The rehabilitation work is meant to improve services, and is linked with the government’s broader goal of boosting tourism.


The Department of Tourism is looking to attract 10 million visitors to the country by 2016. The agency said 4.3 million tourists visited the Philippines in 2012.



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SEC approves rules on ’14 election of PSE board


New set of officers to be named on May 24


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The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the rules governing the election on May 24 of the 15-member Philippine Stock Exchange board.


Under the approved framework for the PSE’s nomination and election committee (Nomelec), broker representatives must not exceed seven while non-brokers are assured of at least seven seats.


The 15th seat is allotted for the PSE president.


Out of the maximum of seven seats that brokers can occupy in the 15-member board, at least one—but not more than two—should represent the small broker or broker B category.


Brokers whose combined volume/value of trade and paid-up capital is below P5.6 billion are classified under category B or small brokers. Those above this level are considered as broker A or big players.


In determining the proportional representation of brokers, the volume/value of trade will have a weight of 60 percent while paid-up capital will have a weight of 40 percent.


For the seven seats earmarked for non-broker directors, at least three should be independent directors while the rest can represent the interest of corporate issuers, investors and other market participants.


There must be at least one representation from each sector.


Meanwhile, the SEC also approved the nomination and election committee rules of Capital Markets Integrity Corp. (CMIC).


CMIC was created in 2012 as independent entity authorized by the SEC to operate as a self-regulatory organization.


It was created to oversee the behavior of market participants and be responsible for market surveillance.


It is a separate and independent company from the PSE, governed by independent directors.


The framework directs CMIC to have at least four independent directors and one PSE independent director in its board.


The charter was also amended to mandate a seven-member board.


The CMIC board used to have only five members.



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International luxury hotel operators gravitate to PH



TO FURTHER accommodate the growing number of visitors, more hotels are slated to be constructed within Newport City by 2016.



Marco Polo Hotels, Ascott The Residence, Maxims Genting, City of Dreams, Solaire Resort and Casino, Hyatt, Marriot Manila, Shangrila Hotels and Resorts, Conrad Hotels and Resorts, The Westin Philippine Plaza Manila, Hilton, Sheraton Hotels and Resorts.


These are just some of the international luxury hotel operators that would either come into the country or experience boom times from 2014 to 2017, as forecast by CBRE Philippines during a Jan. 23 press briefing in Makati. It also reported that luxury hotel accommodations would play a major role in the hospitality sector, and that MICE (meetings, investments, conventions and exhibits) locations would pick up their businesses, and gaming establishments would draw in more foreign guests.


Property analyst Enrique M. Soriano III said, “Retail and hotels will likely post solid growth as employment and spending in the domestic front continue.”


The Colliers International market overview (for 4Q 2013) predicted that in the next three years, up to 4,300 rooms would be “delivered” annually, the highest number since 1988.


“Meanwhile, local real estate firms are entering the hotel and leisure sector, as SM Prime Holdings, Ayala Land and Robinsons Land introduce their new projects slated for completion in the next three years,” noted Colliers International Philippines Research. It added that last year, 1,372 new hotel rooms opened in Metro Manila, bringing the total room inventory to 17,517.


More branches expected


Jones Lang La Salle, in its JLL 2014 property market monitor, singled out Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC), which recently opened its seventh Go Hotel branch in Iloilo City. This one has 167 rooms


JLL forecasts more of such branches to be built over the next few years as RLC has offered the brand for franchise. In particular, Singapore-based Vanguard Hotels Pte. Ltd., in partnership with Roxaco Land Corp., is set to construct at least five new branches in the next two years.


JLL also cited residential property developer Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc., which plans to venture into hotel and resort development. According to the firm, the planned venture is mainly supported by the strong performance of the tourism industry. The firm has formed a new unit that would focus on the development of hotels and resorts, likely starting in 2015.


40% at Entertainment City


Colliers International Philippines’ comprehensive report indicated that of the 4,120 rooms to be completed in 2014, more than 40 percent would be concentrated within the Pagcor Entertainment City, such as Belle Grand City of Dreams (920 rooms) and the surrounding Mall of Asia Complex, such as Radisson Hotel (500 rooms) and Tune Hotel (204 rooms).


It also revealed a new player in the hotel and leisure market—Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels—one of the leading hotel groups in China, with two projects slated for turnover in 2014, the Jin Jiang Inn Ortigas (95 rooms) located beside Richmonde Hotel and the Jin Jiang Inn Greenbelt (70 rooms) located opposite New World Hotel Makati.


“As the government strives to reach its foreign tourist arrivals target of 10 million in 2016, local real estate firms are joining the hotel and leisure sector to augment the accommodation needs of foreign travelers,” reported Colliers.


It added that the Carlson Rezidor Group had partnered with the SM Hotels and Conventions Corp. (SMHCC) to launch the 150-room Park Inn by Radisson in Clark, Pampanga. This project is set for completion in 2016.


Colliers also observed that Ayala Land, through its hotel and resort corporation, had launched two new Seda hotels in its emerging mixed-use developments in Vertis North and Circuit Makati, both of which would be operational in the next three years.


RLC, for its part, aims to complete 1,200 rooms in its portfolio by 2014 by launching three Go Hotels—one in Ortigas Center, another in Butuan and one in Iloilo.


Decreased layovers


CBRE reported an 11-percent growth rate of tourist arrivals as of October 2013 (year-on-year) and possibly exceeding 4.5 million for the whole year.


Despite the increase, it estimates that the average hotel occupancy rate dipped from 67 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2013.


CBRE said: “This may be attributed to the increasing number of international flights to airports outside of Manila, thereby reducing the need to layover in Manila and easing the access to other major tourist destinations in the country like Boracay Island. The Mactan Cebu International Airport Authority, manager of the second largest airport in the country, reported a 15-percent increase year-on-year in the number of international flights at the airport from January to October this year from 3,972 to 4,581 flights.”


Hotel rates


Colliers also reported that growing interest in the Philippines as a tourist destination and a business investment option has been driving hotel room rates to consistently increase in Metro Manila.


It pointed to the trend that average five-star room rates had grown by 3.7 percent to $333 per night in the second half of 2013, versus the 1.1-percent increase in the first half of that year. Four-star room rates increased slightly by 1.1 percent in the second half to $273 per night.


On the other hand, three-star room rates continued to improve significantly at 9.5 percent half-on-half, 250 basis points higher than the 7-percent growth posted in the last period. This can be attributed to the increasing number of local and foreign tourists seeking quality accommodation at affordable prices. Meanwhile, corporate rates grew considerably across all classifications at an annual average of 15 percent.





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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Oil prices down in Asian trade








SINGAPORE–Oil prices fell further in Asian trade Friday owing to concerns over soft US economic data and the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.


New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April delivery, eased 36 cents to $102.04 in mid-morning trade, while Brent North Sea crude for April slid nine cents to $108.87.


WTI fell 19 cents while Brent slid 56 cents in closing deals Thursday.


US data Thursday showed first-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits, a sign of the pace of layoffs, rose last week, well above analysts’ average estimate.


New orders for manufactured durable goods also fell 1.0 percent in January, extending December’s 5.3 percent tumble, the US Commerce Department said.


US Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen told the Senate Banking Committee that policymakers thought severe weather across much of the country was to blame for a disappointing run of economic data over the past two months, including on jobs, industrial output and consumption.


However, she said they would be keeping a close eye on the economy to see if the weak figures continue, which could lead to a slower pace of cuts to the stimulus program.


Investors are also keeping an eye on the crisis in Ukraine, a major energy consumer where the ousted pro-Moscow president, Viktor Yanukovych, emerged defiant Thursday after five days in hiding.


Singapore’s United Overseas Bank said in a market commentary that investors were fretting over weaker US data… and the on-going Ukraine uncertainties”.



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Tokyo stocks open flat








TOKYO–Tokyo stocks were almost flat in opening trade Friday after US central bank chief Janet Yellen reiterated her hopeful-but-watchful view on the economy, lifting US stocks but keeping the dollar in check.


The Nikkei-225 index was down 0.03 percent, or 3.91 points, to 14,919.20 in the first 20 minutes.


Speaking before the Senate banking committee, Yellen on Thursday acknowledged signs of softness in the economy.


The speech, taken as suggesting the Federal Reserve could shift its tapering policy if recent weaker data represented a fundamental change in growth, pushed the S&P 500 to an all-time high.


“The jury is still out on whether the cold weather is to blame … but (stock) markets’ interpretation of Yellen’s comments was positive,” said SMBC Nikko Securities general manager of equities Hiroichi Nishi.


The dollar eased after Yellen’s speech.


The greenback was 102.04 yen early Friday, compared with 102.15 yen in New York Thursday afternoon.


The euro bought 139.88 yen and $1.3704 against 140.05 yen and $1.3710.


Investor reactions were muted to a raft of Japanese government data released just before the stock market opened.


Data showed consumer inflation posted a year-on-year rise for the eighth straight month in January largely on higher energy bills. Factory output in January soared 4.0 percent on-month as companies ramped up production to meet consumer demand before a consumption tax hike.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.46 percent to 16,272.65 while the broad-based S&P 500 passed the previous high mark set in January with a gain of 0.49 percent to 1,854.29.



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Sy-Coson, Azcona on Forbes list of Asia’s power women



Teresita Sy-Coson CONTRIBUTED PHOTO



MANILA, Philippines—The chair of the Philippines’ largest bank and the president of the country’s biggest drugstore chain were adjudged two of the most powerful businesswomen in Asia, according to an annual who’s who list published by Forbes Asia magazine.


Teresita Sy-Coson—a daughter of shopping mall tycoon Henry Sy Sr.—maintained her presence on the honor roll for the third year. The 63-year-old mother of three chairs Banco de Oro Universal Bank and is vice chair of SM Investments Corp. (SMIC).


She was joined by Vivian Que-Azcona, president of Mercury Drug that has been in business since 1945, right after Manila was liberated from the Japanese.


They were the only Filipinos on the closely watched annual listing.


Diverse industries


Forbes said it recognized the “50 Power Businesswomen in Asia” who were driving change across diverse industries.


The 50 women who made the list were selected based on criteria, such as company revenue, their position at the company and their involvement in the running of daily operations, the magazine said.


“As vice chair of SM Investments, Sy-Coson leads one of the largest family conglomerates in the Philippines, with roughly $5 billion in annual revenue from banking, property, hospitality, retail and malls,” Forbes said.


Sy-Coson is arguably the most influential among six siblings whose father is the country’s richest man, with an estimated net worth of P12 billion.


Forbes noted that the past year saw the merger of SMIC’s SM property group—which includes 48 shopping malls in the Philippines and five in China, residential projects, hotels and convention centers—with another unit, SM Prime.


SEA’s biggest property firm


The merger created one of Southeast Asia’s biggest property companies with a land bank of more than 825 hectares and total assets of $7.5 billion.


As chair of Banco de Oro, Sy-Coson spearheaded the opening of 54 new branches last year, bringing its total to 815 in the Philippines and one in Hong Kong, Forbes said.


“When she has free time … she prefers to ‘sleep or do nothing,’” the magazine noted.


Mercury’s humble beginnings


Forbes noted the humble beginnings of Azcona’s Mercury Drug, whose founder, Mariano Que, began by selling on the street bottles of medicine from a pushcart.


“Today, his company has more than 11,000 employees and 900 stores nationwide, 100 of which are open 24 hours a day,” it said. “Que’s daughter, Vivian Que-Azcona, is president of the privately held company, which has an estimated market share of 60 percent and is reported to be considering a backdoor listing [on the stock market].”


No. 1 individual taxpayer


In 2012, the Bureau of Internal Revenue listed Azcona as the highest taxpayer in the country. She and her family are ranked No. 19 on the Forbes “rich list” for the Philippines with a net worth of $840 million.


Others who were honored for their achievements and success included: Karen Agustiawan, president of Indonesia’s Pertamina; Eva Chen, cofounder and CEO of Japan’s Trend Micro; Ho Ching of Singapore’s Temasek Holdings; Sun Yafang, chair of China’s Huawei Technologies; Gail Kelly, CEO of Australia’s Westpac Banking; Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, founder and chair of India’s Biocon; Hong Kong’s gaming queen Pansy Ho; Vietnam’s Mai Kieu Lien who chairs Vinamilk; and Gina Rinehart, executive chair of Australia’s Hancock Prospecting.


Women from 13 countries are represented on the list. Those from China and Hong Kong again dominated this year’s list with 16 women, followed by India with seven.


Singapore and Australia each have four women on this year’s list, while Indonesia, South Korea and Vietnam each have three.


The Philippines, Japan, Thailand and Taiwan each have two women on the list. Malaysia and New Zealand each have one woman.


RELATED STORIES


SM heiress stands out on Forbes Asia’s A-list


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Is The Recent Economic Slowdown Temporary?


Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted Thursday that some recent economic data have pointed to weaker-than-expected gains in consumer spending and job growth. She said the Fed will be watching to see whether the slowdown proves only a temporary blip caused by severe winter weather.


Yellen told the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed will be alert to upcoming data to make sure that the economy keeps strengthening.


"We have seen quite a bit of soft data over the last month or six weeks," Yellen said. "We need to get a firmer handle about how much of the softer data can be explained by the weather."


Responding to a question, Yellen repeated the Fed's assurances that its pullback in stimulus for the economy is "not on a preset course" and could be modified if there was a "significant change" in the Fed's outlook. The Fed is gradually reducing its monthly bond purchases, which have been intended to keep long-term loan rates low to encourage spending and growth.


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Yellen said that while she was open to changing the pace of the Fed's reductions in bond purchases, "I wouldn't want to jump to conclusions" that such a change will be needed.


Yellen repeated remarks she made to a House committee earlier this month that the job market's recovery is "far from complete." She said she expects Fed policies to favor low interest rates "for quite some time."


Yellen's appearance Thursday completed her first twice-a-year report to Congress since becoming Fed chair this month. Her Senate appearance had been postponed by a snowstorm that shut federal offices in Washington on Feb. 13.


In both her House and Senate appearances, Yellen sought to emphasize policy continuity with her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who stepped down last month after eight years leading the central bank.


Yellen said that she, like Bernanke, believed the economy is strengthening enough that the Fed can gradually pull back its monthly bond purchases.


The Fed has cut the pace of bond purchases at both its most recent meetings. It reduced the original $85 billion monthly pace in December and again in January in $10 billion steps to a current level of $65 billion.


Many economists think that as long as the economy keeps improving, the Fed will keep cutting the bond purchases by $10 billion at each meeting this year until ending the program in December.


The Fed has stressed that it's standing by a plan to keep a key short-term rate at a record low near zero for an extended period. At the past two meetings, it has said short-term rates will remain low "well past" the time unemployment drops below 6.5 percent. The unemployment rate is now 6.6 percent.


Many economists think the first rate hike won't occur until late 2015. But minutes of the Fed's last meeting showed that "a few" policymakers felt it might be appropriate to make the first move to raise short-term rates "relatively soon."


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The Fed has held its benchmark for short-term rates near zero since December 2008.


The discussion revealed in minutes of the Jan. 28-29 meeting, released last week, drew the attention of financial markets. The "few" Fed officials who raised the possibility of a rate hike weren't identified.


But some Fed officials have worried that all the moves to provide support for the economy through trillions of dollars in bond purchases and ultra-low rates could eventually spark inflation pressures.


But economists believe this Fed group remains in the minority. Yellen and many other Fed officials say the economy still needs support from the Fed until the job market and economic growth improve further. They note that inflation remains well below the Fed's 2 percent target.


By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

(AP:WASHINGTON) WASHINGTON (AP)



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Traders on edge over power woes


Gov’t urged to induce more investments in power generation


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AP FILE PHOTO



The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) has urged the government to do something about the country’s deteriorating power situation, without having to amend the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (Epira).


The powerful trade bloc specifically asked the authorities to craft a national strategy needed to address the energy problems now plaguing the country.


“Stressing that power supply sustainability, quality and reliability is a challenge that must be concretely laid out annually and solidly planned and executed in a minimum of five years, [we are reiterating our] call on government to come up with a concrete, national, well-coordinated power development plan … including identifying the specific location, type of fuel, size, actual date of commissioning of power plants and to do it with a sense of urgency,” the PCCI said in a statement issued on Thursday.


But the measures must be implemented without amending the Epira, which the PCCI fears will not result in anything concrete or positive, and may only “create an unstable framework and engender uncertainty in the industry.”


Instead of initiating activities that could induce a wait-and-see attitude among potential investors and financial institutions, the PCCI stressed that the government should adopt measures to induce more investments in power generation.


One of the proposals was to strengthen the “market power” of electric cooperatives by allowing them to pool their resources. This will enable them to attain economies of scale and improve production efficiencies.


PCCI pointed out that there was a high level of interest in investing in power generation but there was no clear road to off-takers.


Also, there is a need to streamline the business permits and licensing system, especially in power generation, which require more than 150 such documents, the group said.


To help address escalating costs, the country’s largest business organization suggested a review, revamp or suspension of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) which, the group claimed, had “not added value to the system.”


The PCCI also urged the government to remove items that added to electricity tariffs, such as the value added tax, franchise tax, systems losses and incremental currency exchange rate adjustment (Icera).



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Tags: Business , Government , Investments , Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry , power woes



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Firms risk losses, higher costs due to truck ban

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The Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Inc. (Seipi) has joined the clamor to lift the truck ban ordinance in Manila as its member companies are now at risk of incurring facility line shutdowns, higher storage costs, and huge revenue losses.


Seipi on Thursday said in a statement that Malacañang should step in as the daytime truck ban, meant to decongest the streets of Manila during the daytime, had taken its toll not only on the truck operators but also on multinational companies dependent on day-to-day shipments and delivery.


One of the industries badly affected by the ban is the semiconductor and electronics sector, which is a major user of Manila ports, Seipi said.


The ordinance resulted in “a prolonged strike of three major truck associations and, for every day of delay, member companies of Seipi face the risk of line shutdown if materials don’t arrive on time. This means sending the operators home as there is nothing to work on anyway,” Seipi explained.


The companies also face “higher storage costs because, the longer the materials stay in port, more charges are incurred [as well as] loss of sales because committed delivery dates to clients are not met. One company’s production amount per day is around $90,000. If they have no material to run, this will translate to a huge loss.”


Apart from the prolonged strike and the truck ban ordinance, the simultaneous road projects in Metro Manila that will begin this March and end in 2016 also pose a threat to the daily operations of Seipi member companies.


“While these road infrastructure projects would relieve heavy traffic and, in the long run, benefit the country, inefficient scheduling and planning could worsen road congestions, affecting not only private citizens but businesses, too,” the group noted.


The semiconductor and electronics industry ended 2013 with a 5 percent contraction to $21.82 billion, a continuous annual decline from its highest level of $31 billion in 2010. For 2014, the industry projects a modest growth of only 5 percent.


The Makati Business Club meanwhile noted that while the city of Manila strives to address its serious traffic problems, it is necessary that an appropriate balance be attained between relieving congestion and facilitating the free flow of goods through the city.


“Solving this challenge requires a coordinated effort from both public and private spheres. In this context, we welcome the initiative of the Office of the Cabinet Secretary to convene pertinent government agencies to facilitate dialogue between the government of Manila and other stakeholders. With this mechanism in place and taking note that further delay in resolving this issue will result in adverse effects to the country’s economic performance, we call on the government to ensure that a fair solution will be reached at the soonest possible time,” MBC said in a separate statement.



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Asian shares broadly up, Qantas hit by huge net loss


HONG KONG—Asian markets mostly rose on Thursday in cagey trade following a positive close on Wall Street and before the congressional testimony of US Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen later in the day.


Australia’s main index was hit by a slump in Qantas shares after the national carrier said it would slash 5,000 jobs under restructuring plans as it announced a half-year net loss of more than US$200 million.


Shanghai added 0.30 percent, or 6.10 points, to close at 2,047.35 and Hong Kong rallied 1.74 percent, or 390.74 points, to 22,828.18. Seoul finished 0.39 percent higher, gaining 7.66 points to 1,978.43.


But Tokyo slipped 0.32 percent, or 47.86 points, to 14,923.11 and Sydney fell 0.47 percent, or 25.6 points, to 5,411.4.


Mumbai was closed for a public holiday.


With few catalysts to drive business, investors are waiting to find out Yellen’s views on the US economy when she sits before the Senate Banking Committee later Thursday.


She is unlikely to deviate from her comments to the House of Representatives’ committee two weeks ago but investors will be interested to hear whether the bank expects the severe weather that paralyzed parts of the country to have affected growth prospects.


A recent spate of downbeat data out of the United States over the past two months, including jobs growth, has been blamed on the cold snap.


Yellen’s comments could give an idea of her plans for the Fed’s stimulus program, which has been reduced in each of the bank’s past two policy meetings.


“Her comments on the current situation of the US economy, tapering (of its stimulus) and forward guidance (on interest rates) will be closely watched,” Barclays currency analyst Shinichiro Kadota said in a note to clients.


Wednesday saw the release of data showing a healthy 2.2 percent jump in US new home sales in January, despite the weather.


On Wall Street the Dow rose 0.12 percent, the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq gained 0.10 percent.


In currency trade the dollar was at 102.34 yen compared with 102.38 yen in New York, while the euro fetched 140.00 yen and $1.3674 against 140.11 yen and $1.3683.


In Sydney, struggling Qantas slumped nine percent after it said it will axe 5,000 jobs, freeze pay, defer aircraft deliveries and suspend growth at Asian offshoot Jetstar while warning of more pain to come.


The airline, battling record fuel costs and fierce competition from subsidised rivals, posted an interim net loss of Aus$235 million (US$210 million) in the six months to December 31.


Oil prices fell. New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate for April delivery, was down 29 cents at $102.30, while Brent North Sea crude for April fell 21 cents to $109.31.


Gold fetched $1,324.17 an ounce at 0810 GMT, compared to $1,340.05 late Wednesday.


In other markets:


– Taipei rose 0.45 percent, or 38.72 points, to 8,639.58.


Smartphone maker HTC fell 1.81 percent to Tw$136.0 while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. climbed 0.47 percent to Tw$108.0.


– Wellington fell 0.18 percent, or 8.86 points, to 4,964.34.


Air New Zealand was up 0.86 percent at NZ$1.765 and Fletcher Building slipped 2.07 percent to NZ$9.47.


– Manila closed 0.51 percent higher, adding 32.19 points to 6,354.79.


Universal Robina gained 2.19 percent to 140 pesos while Megaworld Corp. rose 1.22 percent to 4.15 pesos.





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