Friday, January 31, 2014

Glencore Xstrata ‘to pull out’ of Philippine mining project








MANILA, Philippine — Swiss mining giant Glencore Xstrata is expected to pull out of a $5.9 billion (P266 billion) gold-copper mining project in the Philippines, its Australian partner Indophil said.


Melbourne-based Indophil Resources NL said in a quarterly report released this week that “Glencore Xstrata has advised Indophil of its preference to pursue divestment of its interest in Tampakan.”


“All indications point to Glencore Xstrata seeking to divest its majority interest in the Tampakan Copper-Gold Project,” the report added.


It said that a possible divestment of the Tampakan project had been under consideration since April 2013, seen as necessary in order to fulfil conditions set by the Chinese government to approve the merger of commodities giant Glencore and the mining company Xstrata.


Glencore Xstrata also announced in September that it was no longer focusing on “greenfield” mines started from scratch – such as the Tampakan site – preferring to work on existing mines instead.


The Indophil report conceded that the Tampakan project, located in the troubled southern island of Mindanao, had run into problems, chiefly the provincial government’s ban on open-pit mining which delayed the start of development.


The mine would be the Philippines’ largest ever foreign investment but it has faced opposition from church, community and environmental groups and would require numerous other government and community permits to be obtained.


In August 2013, Glencore Xstrata said it was laying off nearly all workers at the Tampakan project amid continued delays.


Indophil said in its quarterly report that the company and its local partners “remain optimistic that the pathways for the development of Tampakan will be cleared.”


Glencore Xstrata owns 62.5 percent and Indophil owns 37.5 percent of a joint venture that holds a 40-percent controlling stake in Sagittarius Mines, Inc., which operates the Tampakan project.


Glencore Xstrata was also providing the “technical, financial and managerial resources for the development of the Tampakan Project,” the Sagittarius Mines website said.


The Indophil statement did not say how the divestment would be carried out.


But it stressed that “with Indophil holding a strategic pre-emptive right over Glencore Xstrata’s interest, Indophil has a considerable ‘say’ in any Tampakan divestment process.”


“We will work with Glencore Xstrata to assist in meeting objectives for the project,” the report added.



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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery


We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.


Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.


Gold Futures


Gold futures finished the week at 1,240 still continuing their choppy trade as investors sold off the precious metal later in the week despite the fact that the S&P 500 is having huge volatility which generally spooks investors into buying gold but the precious metal closed very poorly in my opinion. I have a hard time believing that gold is going to start to rally anytime soon as it might be stuck in the mud and could trade choppy for quite some time. The U.S dollar hit a 7 week high today which is bearish gold prices as the printing press here in the United States is starting to stop which is creating a higher U.S dollar versus the foreign currencies and that is bearish commodity prices in general. I’m recommending investors to sit on the sideline in the gold market at this time as there really is no trend as you have to look for a market that is trending up or down because if you screw around with markets that go up and down and have no trend with constant choppiness that will kill you in the long run.

TREND: SIDEWAYS

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR


Silver Futures


Silver Futures--- Silver futures continued their 9 week consolidation finishing at 19.12 an ounce in the March contract right near contract lows of 18.72 & if that level is broken you have to think prices would head lower in the short term. The emerging market crisis over the last couple of weeks I think is hurting silver prices here in the short term but this too will blow over, as if your long term investor I still think silver prices look attractive as eventually inflation will come back into this market it’s just a matter of when. Silver futures are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average and the longer the consolidation in my opinion the stronger the move will be when prices truly break out while the breakout to the upside is at 20.67 & the breakout to the downside is 18.72 as prices were unable to rally despite the fact that there was panic selling in the S&P 500 as money poured out of the stock market into the bond market but not into the precious metals which tells me the market still currently looks weak.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Soybean Futures


Soybean futures in the November contract which is considered the new crop continue to head lower this week hitting a new contract low going out in Chicago at 11.05 a bushel and traded as low 10.88 earlier in the trading session as the bear market continues & I’ve been recommending a short position in November soybeans for quite some time making sure you place your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 11.30 & that stop will be moved down almost on a daily basis starting next week as the chart structure remains excellent. The problem with November soybeans is the fact that traders are concerned about another huge crop this fall and that could definitely pressure prices back down to the $8.50 range in my opinion as I think the grain market in general is a secular bear market which will continue unless some weather event happens this summer. If you agree with my scenario on where the soybeans are headed you might want to look at November put option spreads taking advantage of volatility over the summer limiting your risk to what the premium costs while giving you plenty of time for the trend to develop as those options don’t expire until late October.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR


Corn Futures


Corn futures for the December contract which is considered the new crop which will be harvested this fall is trading at its 20 day but below its 100 day moving average trading sideways in the last 2 weeks with very little volatility as traders are keeping an eye on the next crop report in 2 weeks as that might add some price movement to this market. This market still looks to be in a major secular bear trend as I see prices going sideways until spring &I do see corn prices possibly breaking $3.00 a bushel come harvest time due to oversupply and weakening demand. My prices projections are based on another record crop this year with another 14 billion bushels but as you all know the weather can change supply/demand tables very quickly and if another major drought hit the Mid-West it can change the trend like it did in 2012 causing corn prices to trade as high as $8.50 a bushel which was the all-time high causing the fundamentals to change very quickly.

TREND: SIDELINES

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Wheat Futures


Wheat futures in the March contract finished down about $.10 for the trading week continuing one of the best bear markets the commodities have seen in quite some time as prices virtually go down every single day & I’m still recommending a short position placing your stop above the 10 day high which is at 5.78 which is about $.22 away or $1,100 as worldwide supplies and excellent growing conditions in wheat growing regions around the world hurting prices which still seem expensive. I’ve been recommending a short position in the wheat market for quite some time as the trend continues to get stronger and stronger as every week goes by still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I do think prices can go as low as 4.50 where they were in 2010 before Russia had weather problems sending wheat from the $4 range up to the $8 range in just a matter of weeks. Continue to play this market to the downside and look at the March put options as volatility is still low and the trend is getting stronger.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Cotton Futures


Cotton futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average down slightly for the week going out this Friday in New York at 86.20 consolidating the recent moves to the upside as this market is still near 4 month highs. The next major resistance is at 88 and then the contract highs of 90.60 and if you are long this market place your stop at 83.80 in the March contract as an exit strategy.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID


Coffee Futures


Coffee futures exploded to the upside for the 3rd consecutive trading day hitting 5 month highs at 125.20 a pound up over 1100 points for the week as investors are pouring in thinking that the long term bottom in coffee has finally been hit in the last several months. Coffee is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend in the short term is higher but at this point this market has absolutely terrible chart structure so I have a hard time buying it because the 10 day low is at 114 risking around $4,400 per contract so I’m recommending to sit on the sidelines and wait for some better chart structure to develop as I do think there will be profit taking eventually. The U.S dollar hit a 7 week high today and I believe that eventually could start to pressure commodity prices especially with the emerging markets now having difficulties but the trend in some markets have been heading higher despite that headwind and coffee prices historically are still relatively cheap. Keep an eye on this market as the real volatility will start in the month of May when we begin frost season down in Brazil but it does look to me that coffee is in a bottoming process.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: AWFUL


Sugar Futures


Sugar futures in the March contract finished sharply higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session closing at 15.55 now trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position in sugar for quite some time getting stopped out as today as prices hit the 10 day high as funds liquidated huge short positions so sit on the sidelines and wait and see what develops. I’m a technical trader and I must have some exit strategies in place and my exit strategy is placing my stop at the 10 day high but you can have something different possibly a 15 day high or 7 day high so create some type of exit strategy for your personal account still maintaining the proper risk management as I do think prices are still headed lower but I can’t recommend a short position at this time as the trend has now turned neutral here in the short term. If you’re not a trend follower I would have to believe that you have to continue to sell sugar as supplies are too high as there are some dry areas in Brazil which is causing some concern possibly cutting some crop production, however I think today was massive short covering as the funds covered in today’s trading session.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


U.S. Dollar


The US dollar rallied sharply higher by 90 points in the March contract this week closing around 81.40 with stiff resistance at 81.50 and if that level is broken you’re talking about 4 month highs and I have been recommending a bullish position in the dollar for quite some time as I do think higher interest rates are coming in the United States which will push the dollar higher against the foreign currencies and if you been taking my recommendation I would place my stop at the 10 day low which was hit about a week ago at 80.22 making sure that it closes below that price not intraday as I go by closing prices only. The U.S dollar is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average and I do believe the trend is higher and if you look at the daily chart it has outstanding chart structure allowing you to place tight stops in case you are wrong minimizing your monetary loss and I do believe with the Federal Reserve tapering down to 65 billion from 85 billion I think the U.S dollar is headed higher and I expect a lot of buy stops above 81.50 which could be triggered in Monday’s trade as I remain bullish.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Euro Futures


The Euro currency was sharply lower down 160 points this week at 1.3500 retesting possible lows next week at 1.33 and if that level is broken you are talking about 4 month lows as the tapering program in the United States is starting in full force which is putting pressure on the Euro currency. If you’re looking to get short the Euro currency my opinion would be to sell a futures contract at today’s price while putting my stop at the 10 day high which was hit last week around 1.3740 risking around $2,700 per contract if you are wrong on the trade. If your bullish the Euro currency my recommendation would be to buy a futures contract at today’s price and put a stop below the 10 day low which is 1.3480 risking around $1,000 per contract but I do believe that prices are headed lower.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Live Cattle Futures


Live cattle futures in the April contract went out this Friday afternoon in Chicago at 140.72 slightly higher for the trading week basically consolidating the recent run-up in prices as the bull market continues in my opinion as prices I think will retest the contract high of 143 and possibly move higher up to the 150 level as the chart pattern still dictates higher prices. Cattle futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving averages. This is been one of the best trends in the commodity markets for quite some time with the smallest herds in almost 6 decades and lower feed costs as this market has not topped out in my opinion. Volatility is not out of control at this time and I’m very surprised by that because when prices are at all-time highs volatility is also right near all-time highs so I don’t think this market has topped out until the volatility spikes higher and at the present time it still has pretty solid chart structure allowing you to place a stop loss below the 10 day low minimizing your risk in case you are wrong.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Lean Hog Futures


Lean hog futures in Chicago settled around 94.60 a pound basically unchanged for the trading week and I’ve been recommending a long position in this market for quite some time as it does have outstanding chart structure allowing you place your 10 day stop at 91.60 if you took my recommendation on the 4 week breakout as prices continue to move higher as solid demand is currently propping up prices despite the fact that the U.S dollar is right near a 7 week high. As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I thought hog prices would start to catch up to the cattle market as cattle prices are at all-time highs and I do think there’s a high probability that hog prices can reach 100 in the next several weeks as the bull market continues in my opinion. The next major resistance in hogs is the contract high around 96.25 which was hit 3 months ago and if those levels are breached look for a possibility of prices going to all-time highs as well.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Feeder Cattle Futures


Feeder cattle prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average in the March contract going out this afternoon around 169.60 up around 90 points trading higher for the week right near contract highs at 171 which is also historical all-time highs& in my opinion this market still has outstanding chart structure and I believe higher prices are here to come. If you think that prices are headed higher my strategy would be to buy at today’s price placing a stop below the 10 day low which is 166.50 risking around $1,500 per contract as traders are also awaiting the USDA crop report in a couple weeks which could send volatility back into this market. Feeder cattle prices have basically gone nowhere in the last 3 weeks and I do believe the next leg will be to the upside so I remain bullish the cattle markets.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Orange Juice Futures


Prices are trading at their 20 day and above the 100 day which tells me that this is a sideways trend and should be avoided at the current time so wait for a solid trend to develop. Prices spiked in early January as frost concerns sent prices sharply higher but when the crop wasn’t affected prices dropped a couple days later as now traders await for the next USDA crop report in 2 weeks. March orange juice prices traded up 2.85 points this Friday afternoon closing at 142.55 and traded as high as 144.50 in early trade.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Where Should You Place Your Stops? Identifying where stops exist in the market is an important lesson to learn because placing a correct stop loss that will improve your trading tremendously over the course of time. Nobody knows for sure where stops are located, however I have learned a couple of things over my 20 year career and I have a general idea where stops are placed and why. Buy stops are generally placed above the 10 day high as well as above contract highs as the bulls generally are buying more and the short selling are getting stopped out. Sell stops are usually placed at the 10 day low as well as below contract lows which means the shorts are adding to their position and the longs are getting stopped out as they figure they are wrong. The other common places to have stops are at certain moving averages such as the 20 or 100 day moving average where traders think either the trend is turning bullish or the market is starting to break down. Placing stops to close or not at important price levels can get very frustrating because the market can stop you out and then go the direction that you thought leaving you behind and out of the market. Placing stops is one of the most important aspects of trading in my opinion.


If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com


SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS


There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.


Michael Seery, President

Seery Futures

http://ift.tt/1fGCqDc

Twitter–@seeryfutures

Phone #: (800) 615-7649

mseery@seeryfutures.com



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Brace for a rough ride in 2014


Brace yourselves for a rough ride.


The Year of the Wooden Horse, which began last Friday, will be bumpy, at least in the first few months, according to a feng shui expert.


Geomancer Andy Tan said that in Oriental tradition, the Year of the Wooden Horse has always been viewed as challenging, and this year will be no different.


“This horse is like a stallion that has not been ridden yet,” he said. “It doesn’t want to be ridden, so the first six months [of this year] will be very volatile.”


Tan—who has been practicing feng shui and consulting for major real estate developments for over two decades—said the volatility of the Year of the Wooden Horse would be felt in business and politics, both here and abroad.


“The general attitude will be quite erratic in the first half,” he said, adding that, as early as today, a cursory glance at the business headlines would indicate that a rough ride is coming for businessmen, especially those whose businesses are affected by the gyrations of the financial markets.


Less liquidity


Tan pointed out that the beginning of the Chinese Lunar New Year coincided with recent developments in the United States, where the Federal Reserve had decided to slowly reduce the amount of liquidity it pumped into the economy each month.


The reduction in liquidity would result in higher interest rates around the world, the expectation of which is already felt through higher volatility in some emerging markets.


“This will be very, very challenging,” Tan said, explaining that the reduction in the liquidity pumped by the US central bank into the global economy would filter down to the Philippines, likely resulting in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raising its own interest rates, to the detriment of businesses that rely on loans for their day-to-day operations.


“This is when the horse will start to buck,” Tan said.


He pointed out that the volatility in the business and economic spheres would be most pronounced in the first three months of the Year of the Wooden Horse, but would likely start to stabilize by May.


According to Tan’s explanation of Chinese astrological tradition, the world goes through a three-year cycle that determines which hemisphere is more—or less—auspicious at any given period.


“For 2011 to 2013, the northeast and northwest [parts of the world] were the best [in luck],” he said. “But for this year, it’s southwest and southeast.”


Challenging for rats


The Year of the Horse, he said, is especially challenging for those born in the Year of the Rat, because the rat and the horse signs sit diametrically opposed to each other in the Chinese astrological calendar.


Interestingly, Tan pointed out that most of the country’s top political leaders were born in Year of the Rat.


“President Aquino is a metal rat,” he said. “Then formerly, the head of the Senate was JPE (Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile) who is a wooden rat. The Speaker of the House, Sonny Belmonte, is also a rat, a fire rat. And finally, Chief Justice [Maria Lourdes] Sereno is a metal rat.”


Vice President Jejomar Binay, he said, was born in the Year of the Water Horse.


This presents a challenging situation for Binay because he is surrounded by rats in high government office, and horses and rats have traditionally not coexisted well in Chinese astrological traditions.


Lucky businesses


Tan predicted that the businesses that would do well this year were those that are “close to the earth,” given that the current horse year would be ruled by the element of wood.


“Agriculture would be good, along with construction and real estate,” he said. “There’s no [real estate] bubble, and [even if there is], it will not burst.”


Other businesses that according to Tan will also progress this year are those involved in remittances and manufacturing.


The banking and insurance sectors will find the Year of the Wooden Horse difficult. So will the oil and energy sectors, he said.


“But things will become smoother by the second half, until 2015, as I foresee it,” Tan said.


And despite the general apprehension about the Year of the Wooden Horse among Oriental astrology cognoscenti, Tan predicted that the Philippines would emerge from the turbulence relatively unscathed.


Now that’s good news.





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Neda sees surge in foreign investments

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The National Economic and Development Authority expects an accelerated increase in foreign direct investments this year, saying foreigners would likely follow the lead of locals in doing more business in the country.


Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, who is also director general of the Neda, said rising investments by local enterprises seen last year would help pave the way for a faster increase in FDIs.


“If more local businesses are becoming more confident in investing, foreigners will take this is a signal to also invest more,” Balisacan told reporters.


The government reported last Thursday that the Philippine economy grew by 7.2 percent last year, surpassing the official target range of 6 to 7 percent. This made the Philippines one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia.


Balisacan said one of the key growth drivers last year was the increase in investments by local businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sub-sector.


Manufacturing expanded by 12.3 percent last year, faster than the 5.5 percent registered the previous year. This pushed the overall growth of the industrial sector last year to 9.5 percent compared with 6.8 percent in 2012.


“Growth of the manufacturing sector can be attributed to improving business sentiment due to the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals,” Balisacan said.


He cited the government’s favorable fiscal situation, modest inflation and the country’s ample foreign-exchange reserves.


These factors were also cited by key international credit-rating agencies, which last year gave the Philippines its first-ever investment grade. Fitch Ratings raised the country’s credit rating by a notch from junk status to the minimum investment grade in March. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service followed in May and October.


Last year, FDIs to the Philippines rose significantly on the back of improved business sentiment. Gross FDIs rose year-on-year by 85 percent to $4.98 billion from January to October, documents from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed.


The amount, however, still paled in comparison with the FDIs being cornered by neighboring countries. Indonesia, for instance, had received more than $20 billion during the period.


Historically, the Philippines has lagged behind most of its Southeast Asian neighbors in terms of FDIs. The usual reasons cited included tedious processes in setting up a business, high power and labor costs and poor infrastructure.


However, Balisacan said business sentiment was seen to improve further and fuel an even faster increase in FDIs this year amid projections that the Philippines could post yet another robust economic growth.



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Tags: Business , foreign investments , NEDA



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Ayala buys stake in power firm








Conglomerate Ayala Corp. has completed the acquisition of a 17.1-percent stake in GNPower Mariveles Coal Plant Ltd. Co. (GMPC), owner of the 600-megawatt coal-fired plant in Mariveles, Bataan.


The plant has completed commissioning and started commercial operations earlier this week, Ayala disclosed to the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE).


It was earlier reported that Ayala had bought into this power plant project for $155 million.


Ayala, through a wholly owned subsidiary, has achieved financial closing in relation to the acquisition, the disclosure said. This was under the terms of the sale and purchase agreement that the group earlier entered into with an affiliate of a fund advised by Denham Capital.


With the acquisition, the Ayala conglomerate is now a co-owner of the Mariveles power plant with power project developer Power Partners Ltd. Co. and Sithe Global Power LLC, a company owned by investors of The Blackstone Group.


The Mariveles power plant is a major capacity addition seen critical to alleviating potential power shortages in the Luzon grid. The plant uses pulverized coal technology designed to meet global standards, in line with Ayala’s goal of becoming a key player in the power business.


J.P. Morgan served as financial adviser to Ayala in the transaction. Doris C. Dumlao



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Tags: acquisition , ayala corp. , Business , GNPower Mariveles Coal Plant Ltd. Co.



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LPG rollback extends to February

By







INQUIRER file photo



MANILA, Philippines–Mixed expectations on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices for February were put to rest as sellers cut prices for the second-straight month amid soft market demand and government signals clamping down volatility.


In separate advisories, oil firms said they will roll back LPG prices by 12:01 a.m. Feb. 1 on low international price trends.


Petron said it will trim Gasul and Fiesta Gas prices by P1.45 per kilogram, and Xtend AutoLPG by P0.81 per liter.


Isla LPG Corp. said it will roll back prices for Solane by P1.68/kg.


The Eastern Petroleum Group also said it will roll back EC Gas household LPG prices by P1.45 per kilogram, and AutoLPG by P0.81 per liter.


Other LPG players are expected to impose similar adjustments as the Philippines, a fuel importer, is highly vulnerable to international price trends.

Isla LPG CEO Toshihisa Fuse assured customers of enough supply for Solane branded LPG products. “We work very closely with our LPG suppliers to ensure the steady supply of both our local and imported LPG products. We remain committed in providing customers with safe, reliable, and high quality Solane LPG,” Fuse said in a separate statement.


Most industry sources had predicted a second monthly price rollback for LPG since the start of the year as contract prices worlwide trended downward. However, this week, there were concerns of a price hike driven by challenges in logistics for certain refillers in southern Luzon. LPG Marketers Association Rep. Arnel Ty recently said the closure of Shell’s LPG-producing refinery in Batangas last year left some refillers sourcing the cooking fuel from another supplier—Liquigaz–in Bataan and bearing additional transport cost as a result.


The Department of Energy (DOE) maintained it expects stable LPG supply despite industry changes, including the shutdown of some underutilized LPG terminals in Luzon and the race among independent players to build direct import facilities in the Visayas and Mindanao.

Amid reports of price speculation, Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla also issued a department circular requiring all LPG importers, suppliers, refiners, refillers, marketers, distributors, haulers/transporters, handlers, storage providers, retailers, sellers and dealers of LPG products to secure a Standard Compliance Certificate (SCC) to be able to transact and sell with other LPG industry players and consumers.


“This circular will serve as a safeguard for LPG customers as it will discourage those who are illegally selling LPG without proper clearances. The SCC also encourages refillers to contract a portion of their requirements to secure their supply and avoid supply uncertainty,” DOE said.


Violators of the said circular will be sanctioned with administrative charges and fines by the DOE. All existing LPG establishments have three months from the effectivity of the circular to fully comply with the rules, DOE said.



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Tags: Business , LPG , oil prices , price rollback



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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Ayala-Metro Pacific win first PPP contract

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FILE PHOTO



MANILA, Philippines—The Department of Transportation and Communication has awarded the first project under the government’s so-called public private partnership program — a common ticketing system for the MRT-LRT elevated train system—to a consortium led by Ayala Corp. and Metro Pacific Investments Corp, the department disclosed Friday.



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Tags: DoTC , MRT-LRT , PPP , ticketing system



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Dollar firms in Asia after US growth data









US Currency. AP FILE PHOTO



TOKYO–The dollar rose in Asia Friday following better-than-forecast US growth figures, which also eased concerns about emerging markets after a heavy sell-off this week.


The greenback bought 102.86 yen, up from 102.71 yen late in New York and much better than the 102.30 yen earlier Thursday in Asia.


The euro weakened to $1.3547 against $1.3554, while it inched up to 139.33 yen from 139.21 yen.


On Thursday the US Commerce Department said the world’s number one economy expanded 3.2 percent in October-December, well above the 3.0 percent projected by analysts. There was also some cheer from figures showing a 3.3 percent rise in consumer spending, which is a crucial driver of growth in the United States.


Investors welcomed the news, which came a day after the Federal Reserve reduced its stimulus programme by another $10 billion a month to $65 billion, following a similar cut in December.


While the US central bank cited a firming US economy for the wind-down, the announcement rattled emerging markets such as India, South Africa and Russia on fears of a capital flight, which in turn sent their currencies diving.


But Thursday’s growth figures gave soothed some tensions, with Russia’s ruble, the South African rand, Turkey’s lira, Brazil’s real and the Indian rupee all either flat or stronger, even as the dollar itself surged against major currencies.


Japan’s economy minister Akira Amari called for markets to “cool down” to avoid mass capital repatriation by foreign investors.


“I want the market to cool down because what tapering is all about is not decreasing money, but the pace of money they provide,” he said when asked his views on recent market volatility.


Osao Iizuka, head of FX trading at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust and Banking, told Dow Jones Newswires that he “remains sceptical” about markets settling down.


Japan Friday released data showing it was winning its fight against deflation as consumer prices rose 0.4 percent last year, the first annual rise since 2008. The Bank of Japan has an ambitious target of 2.0 percent inflation by mid-2015.



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Tokyo stocks open up 0.83 percent









A man watches an electronic stock indicator in Tokyo. AP



TOKYO– Tokyo stocks opened 0.83 percent higher on Friday after gains on Wall Street and positive economic data from Japan.


The Nikkei-225 index, which tumbled 2.45 percent on Thursday, rose 125.17 points to 15,132.23 at the start.


Japan’s government released a series of figures shortly before the market opened, including a lower jobless rate and data that showed the deflation-plagued nation’s consumer prices rose for the first time in five years in 2013.


US stocks climbed Thursday on the strength of a solid report on US economic growth and banner results from Facebook that raised hopes about other technology giants.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.70 percent to 15,848.61.


The broad-based S&P 500 gained 1.13 percent to 1,794.19, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index soared 1.77 percent to 4,123.13.


The dollar was at 102.68 yen early Friday compared with 102.71 yen in New York Thursday afternoon.


The euro fetched $1.3557 and 139.18 yen against $1.3554 and 139.21 yen.



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US stocks move higher, helped by Facebook, GDP



Specialist Jorge Fernandez, left, and trader Patrick Casey, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. US stocks rose sharply Thursday, with large parts of the market erasing Wednesday’s losses, as investors cheered a batch of strong earnings and data that showed the US economy grew at a robust annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. AP PHOTO



NEW YORK—It was a stock market reversal.


Stocks rose sharply Thursday, with large parts of the market erasing Wednesday’s losses, as investors cheered a batch of strong earnings and data that showed the US economy grew at a robust annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter.


Investors also got a welcome respite from the recent turmoil in overseas markets, particularly in Turkey and Argentina.


The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 19.99 points, or 1.1 percent, to 1,794.19, with all 10 sectors of the index closing higher. That more than made up the 18.29 points the index lost on Wednesday.


The Nasdaq composite jumped 71.69 points, or 1.8 percent, to 4,123.13 and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 109.82 points, or 0.7 percent, to 15,848.61.


Facebook jumped $7.55, or 14 percent, to $61.08. The social media company reported results late Wednesday that exceeded the expectations of financial analysts. Facebook’s adjusted profit was 31 cents per share, four cents better than forecast.


It wasn’t all good news out of the technology sector. Amazon.com sank in after-hours trading after releasing results that fell short of what investors were expecting. The stock of the online retailing pioneer dropped $35.47, or 9 percent, to $367.54.


In other earnings news, Visa rose $3.76, or 2 percent, to $220.88 after the company reported a 9 percent rise in first-quarter profits, beating expectations.


Alexion Pharmaceuticals was the biggest advancer in the S&P 500, rising $28.27, or 21 percent, to $162 after the company also beat analysts’ expectations and gave a strong 2014 outlook. Alexion is a specialized drug maker focused on rare genetic diseases.


Alexion helped lift the stocks of other drugmakers. Dow members Merck and Pfizer each rose more than 2 percent. Specialized drugmakers Gilead Sciences and Biogen were up 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively.


Investors also cheered news that US economy grew at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2013, a positive sign for the economy in 2014. Consumer spending, a major driver of the US economy, picked up in the quarter.


“It was a good, balanced GDP report,” said Sean Lynch, global investment strategist with Wells Fargo Private Bank, which manages $170 billion in assets.


Even with Thursday’s gain, it’s been a difficult month for investors. The Dow is down 4.4 percent in January, the worst start to a year since 2009.


Emerging markets worries drove most of the sell-off over the last two weeks. A survey last week confirmed that manufacturing in China, the world’s second-biggest economy, slowed in January. And this week, the Turkish lira hit record lows, partly because a police bribery scandal there might destabilize the Turkish government.


In Argentina, the peso had its sharpest slide in 12 years earlier this month.


“The currency problems in the emerging markets caught a lot of people by surprise, and that overflowed in to U.S. markets,” Lynch said.


Investors got a break from the troubles in emerging markets Thursday. The Turkish lira, Argentinian peso and the South African rand, another troubled currency, stabilized.


The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, an exchange-traded fund that tracks stocks located in less-developed countries, rose 1 percent after falling 1.5 percent the day before.


Even with Thursday’s upturn, the broader trend in the market appears to be downward for the time being, strategists say. The Dow has risen only two out of the last eight trading days.


“I’m pretty focused on corporate earnings, and that’s about it,” said Ian Winer, director of trading at Wedbush Securities. “Earnings have been OK, but not all that great. I think we’re going lower, and I think (the sell-off this month) is just the beginning.”


Several investors have said the US stock market will experience a “correction,” meaning a decline of 10 percent or more in a benchmark index like the S&P 500, sometime this year. That chorus has gotten louder in the last couple of weeks. The last time the market had a correction was in October 2011.


“The markets have been looking for a reason to pull back and certainly the emerging markets and currency problems gave them a reason to do so,” Lynch said.


The bond market also had a day of stability. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note edged up to 2.70 percent from 2.68 percent the day before.





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Amazon swings to profit for 2013 on sales jump









AFP



NEW YORK – US tech giant Amazon said Thursday it returned to profit in 2013 on a strong jump in revenue, as it expanded offerings for Kindle tablets and its original television programming.


Profit in the fourth quarter rose to $239 million, bringing annual net income to $274 million after a loss of $39 million in 2012.


Revenues rose 20 percent in the final three months of the year to $25.59 billion and were up 22 percent at $74.4 billion for the year.


Amazon’s gains come for a year it boosted its offerings for its “Prime Instant Video” streaming service and launched through its Amazon Studios the original series “Alpha House” and “Betas,” ramping up its challenge to services like Netflix.


Amazon also revamped its line of Kindle tablets believed to hold a significant share of the global market, even though Amazon itself releases no sales data.


“It’s a good time to be an Amazon customer. You can now read your Kindle gate-to-gate, get instant on-device tech support via our revolutionary Mayday button and have packages delivered to your door even on Sundays,” said founder and chief executive Jeff Bezos.


Bezos was referring to new US aviation rules that allow mobile device use on flights, and the new tech support button on Kindle devices.


Last year, Amazon announced a partnership with the US Postal Service allowing packages to get Sunday delivery.


Amazon shares slumped 7.6 percent in after-hours trade on the earnings news.


“Wall Street has not penalized the company for operating on extremely low margins or negative margins, but at some point, this should be an issue. That point may be now,” said Jon Ogg at 24/7 Wall Street.


“Its margins have been allowed to operate at close to zero for long enough. Maybe investors are finally deciding that a company that takes over retail segments and crushes brick and mortar rivals needs to do so with clear profitability rather than at a non-profit status.”



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Google quarterly profit climbs on ad revenue









AP FILE PHOTO



SAN FRANCISCO – Google on Thursday reported that profit in the closing quarter of last year climbed to $3.38 billion on rising ad revenue.


“We ended 2013 with another great quarter of momentum and growth,” Google chief Larry Page said in the earnings release.


Google also declared it would pay a dividend in the form of Class C stock.


Google shares rose slightly in after-market trades to $1,141.60, having closed the day up 2.57 percent to $1,135.39 on word of its deal to sell smartphone maker Motorola Mobility to China-based computer titan Lenovo.


Motorola was seen by analysts as a drag on Google profit and an irritant in its relationships with partners who crank out smartphones or tablets powered by the Internet giant’s Android software.


Google has agreed to sell Motorola to Lenovo for $2.91 billion, after a lackluster two-year effort to turn around the smartphone maker it bought for $12.5 billion.


The deal ends Google’s run as a handset maker after it biggest-ever takeover, which was announced in 2011 and finalized in 2012.


It also provides Lenovo footholds in smartphone and tablet markets where it is eager to gain traction while acting as a peace offering to Samsung and other partners that make devices powered by Google-backed Android software.


“It is win-win,” said analyst Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies in Silicon Valley. “Google keeps the patents and the research group, and they keep partners off their back, while Lenovo gets what they need to get into the US smartphone market.”


Even under Google, Motorola failed to gain traction in a rapidly evolving smartphone market now dominated by South Korea’s Samsung and US-based Apple.


Google continues to have hardware plans that include Nest smart home thermostats, Internet connected eyewear called “Glass,” and making Android smartphones and tablets with partners.


“We made great progress across a wide range of product improvements and business goals,” Page said of the final quarter of last year.


“I’m also very excited about improving people’s lives even more with continued hard work on our user experiences.”



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Economy grew 7.2% despite disasters

By







Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan . INQUIRER FILE PHOTO



MANILA, Philippines–The Philippine economy grew by 7.2 percent in 2013, staying on as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, the Philippine Statistics Authority announced Thursday.


For the fourth quarter alone, the Philippine economy grew by 6.5 percent, slower than the growth rates in the three previous quarters, due to the impact of Supertyphoon “Yolanda.”


In a press conference, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the economic growth last year was driven by consumer and government spending, as well as increased investments by the private sector.


“Indeed growth could have been better have we not been perturbed by calamities,” Balisacan said.


“Nonethess, the Philippines remained one of the fastest growing economies in Asia,” he added.


RELATED STORIES


PH stock index keeps gaining over good economic prospects


Citi raises growth forecast for PH



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Asian shares dive as Fed cut sparks emerging market fears



A man walks by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. Asian markets slumped Thursday, extending a global rout on renewed fears about emerging economies after the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead with its stimulus reduction and Turkey and South Africa hiked interest rates. AP



HONG KONG—Asian markets slumped Thursday, extending a global rout on renewed fears about emerging economies after the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead with its stimulus reduction and Turkey and South Africa hiked interest rates.


The dollar and euro sank against the yen as dealers scurried into safer investments after the Fed decision, while sentiment took a further blow from data confirming Chinese manufacturing contracted in January.


Tokyo dived 2.45 percent, or 376.85 points, to close at 15,007.06, leading other markets lower.


Sydney shed 0.78 percent, or 40.9 points, to close at 5,188.1 and Hong Kong lost 0.48 percent, or 106.19 points, to end at 22,035.42 in half-day trading ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday.


Shanghai closed 0.82 percent, or 16.83 points, lower at 2,033.08.


Taipei and Seoul were closed for public holidays.


Wall Street sank Wednesday after the Fed said it would reduce its bond-buying program by $10 billion a month to $65 billion, citing a pick-up in the US economy. That followed a similar announcement in December.


Investors took flight after the announcement, which stoked fears of capital flows from emerging markets that have benefited from the Fed’s cheap money policies, as dealers look for safer investments back home.


In New York the Dow dived 1.15 percent, the S&P 500 1.01 percent and the Nasdaq 1.14 percent. London, Frankfurt and Paris too were all down ahead of the Fed announcement.


Global equity and forex markets have been in turmoil since the end of last week after a plunge in the Argentine peso sparked fresh developing nation fears.


Anxiety about economic growth has been exacerbated by preliminary data from HSBC indicating manufacturing activity in China—the world’s second-biggest economy—had contracted in January.


On Thursday HSBC confirmed its purchasing managers’ index for China had fallen to 49.5, the lowest figure since July.


Rate hikes by Turkey and South Africa Wednesday failed to stem losses in their currencies as developing economies around the world battle against foreigners repatriating their cash.


Russia, Brazil and Argentina also faced further drops in their units, despite the International Monetary Fund stressing there was not a general panic and that each faces specific challenges.


Fed ignores emerging markets


Despite global jitters, Fed policymakers made no mention of emerging markets, leaving investors with little comfort, analysts said.


“The market was discouraged by the fact that they did not refer to emerging economies,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.


In forex trade the dollar and euro edged up against the yen compared from US trading, although down heavily from Asian levels Wednesday. The yen is considered a safe investment in times of trouble.


The dollar made up a little of the ground lost after the Fed announcement, hitting 102.47 yen by late afternoon in Asia, compared with 102.25 yen in New York Wednesday.


The euro also bought 139.57 yen against 139.71 yen and $1.3617 against $1.3662.


Emerging market currencies were also under pressure. Turkey, where political upheaval is fueling market fears, doubled its benchmark rate to 10.0 percent, while South Africa announced a half a percentage point rise.


India lifted rates a modest quarter-point to slow inflation, itself also partly a consequence of the rupee’s slump.


The moves had only a brief impact on the respective currencies.


The Turkish lira jumped about 3.0 percent to 2.17 to the dollar after the rate move, before shedding half those gains. It was sitting at 2.2764 per dollar Thursday.


South Africa’s rand was at a five-year low of 11.38 to the dollar shortly after the rate hike announcement. Although it rebounded later to 11.3094, that was still lower than the pre-rate hike rate.


Indonesia’s rupiah weakened to 12,215 to the dollar compared with 12,160 Wednesday, although the Indian rupee rallied to 62.7010 against 62.4680.


In oil trade New York’s main contract West Texas Intermediate for March delivery gained six cents to $97.42 in afternoon trade while Brent North Sea crude for March was down seven cents at $107.78.


Gold, a safe-haven investment, rose to $1,257.30 at 0810 GMT, compared with $1,254.80 late Wednesday.


In other markets:


– Mumbai fell 0.72 percent, or 149.05 points, to 20,498.25 points.


Shares of the government-owned Bank of India shed 10.47 percent, or 21.80 rupees, to 186.35 rupees a share, while United Spirits fell 6.83 percent or 178.95 rupees to 2,440.50 rupees per share.


– Bangkok lost 0.58 percent, or 7.35 points, to 1,264.07.


Coal producer Banpu fell 2.83 percent to 25.75 baht, while Thai Oil dropped 2.80 percent to 52 baht.


– Jakarta ended up 0.03 percent, or 1.41 points, at 4,418.76.


Asia Pacific Fibers gained 5.43 percent to 97 rupiah, while mobile phone provider Indosat rose 2.17 percent to 4,240 rupiah.


– Wellington fell 0.67 percent, or 32.88 points, to 4,849.84.


Telecom was off 1.7 percent at NZ$2.32 and Fletcher Building was down 0.3 percent at NZ$8.87.


– Kuala Lumpur gained 0.83 percent, or 14.80 points, to 1,804.03.


Utility Tenaga added 5.0 percent to 11.80 ringgit and Petronas Gas rose 1.7 percent to 23.38 but Malaysia Airports Holdings lost 2.2 percent to 8.46 ringgit.


– Singapore fell 0.68 percent, or 20.71 points, to 3,027.22.


Singapore Airlines tumbled 0.83 percent to Sg$9.59 and Singapore Telecom eased 0.28 percent to Sg$3.53.


– Manila slipped 0.47 percent, or 28.65 points, to 6,041.19.


Philippine Long Distance Telephone fell 0.30 percent to 2,698.00 pesos and Metropolitan Bank eased 0.26 percent to 76 pesos but SM Prime Holdings gained 2.24 percent to 15.52 pesos.





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Businesses told to prepare for rough first half of 2014



Geomancer Dr. Andy Tan



MANILA, Philippines—Brace yourselves for a rough ride.


The Year of the Wooden Horse, which begin on Friday (Jan. 31), will be bumpy, at least in the first few months, according to a feng shui expert.


Geomancer Andy Tan said that in Oriental tradition, the Year of the Wooden Horse has always been viewed as challenging, and this year would be no different.


“This horse is like a stallion that has not been ridden yet,” he said. “It doesn’t want to be ridden, so the first six months [of this year] will be very volatile.”


Tan — who has been practicing feng shui and consulting for major real estate developments for over two decades — said the volatility of the Year of the Wooden Horse would be felt in business and politics, both here and abroad.


“The general attitude will be quite erratic in the first half,” he said, adding that, as early as today, a cursory glance at the business headlines would indicate that a rough ride would come for businessmen, especially those whose businesses were usually affected by the gyrations of the financial markets.


Tan pointed out that the beginning of the Chinese Lunar New Year coincided with recent developments in the United States, where the Federal Reserve had decided to slowly reduce the amount of liquidity it pumped into the economy each month.


The reduction in liquidity would result in higher interest rates around the world, the expectation of which has been felt through higher volatility in some emerging markets.


“This will be very, very challenging,” Tan said, explaining that the reduction in the liquidity pumped by the US central bank into the global economy would filter down to the Philippines, likely resulting in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raising its own interest rates, to the detriment of businesses that have been relying on loans for their day-to-day operations.


“This is when the horse will start to buck,” Tan said.


He pointed out that the volatility in the business and economic spheres would be most pronounced in the first three months of the Year of the Wooden Horse, but would likely start to stabilize by May.


According to Tan’s explanation of Chinese astrological tradition, the world goes through a three-year cycle that determines which hemisphere is more—or less—auspicious at any given period.


“For 2011 to 2013, the northeast and northwest [parts of the world] were the best [in luck],” he said. “But for this year, it’s southwest and southeast.”


The Year of the Horse, he said, would especially be challenging for those born in the Year of the Rat, because the rat and the horse signs sit diametrically opposed to each other in the Chinese astrological calendar.


Interestingly, Tan pointed out that most of the country’s top political leaders were born in Year of the Rat.


“President Aquino is a metal rat,” he said. “Then formerly, the head of the Senate was JPE (Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile) who is a wooden rat. The Speaker of the House, Sonny Belmonte, is also a rat, a fire rat. And finally, Chief Justice [Maria Lourdes] Sereno is a metal rat.”


Vice President Jejomar Binay, he said, was born in the Year of the Water Horse.


This presents a challenging situation for Binay because he is surrounded by rats in high government office, and horses and rats have traditionally not coexisted well in Chinese astrological tradition.


Tan predicted that the businesses that would do well this year were those “close to the earth,” given that the current horse year would be ruled by the element of wood.


“Agriculture would be good, along with construction and real estate,” he said. “There’s no [real estate] bubble, and [even if there is], it will not burst.”


Other businesses that according to Tan will also progress this year are those involved in remittances and manufacturing.


The banking and insurance sectors will find the Year of the Wooden Horse difficult. So would the oil and energy sectors, he said.


“But things will become smoother by the second half, until 2015, as I foresee it,” Tan said.


And despite the general apprehension about the Year of the Wooden Horse among Oriental astrology cognoscenti, Tan predicted that the Philippines would emerge from the turbulence relatively unscathed.


Now that’s good news.


RELATED STORY


Bumpy year for Asia in Year of the Horse





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PH gov’t has lost P64B in 2 years to unchecked smuggling of food



INQUIRER FILE PHOTO



MANILA, Philippines—The government’s failure to curb smuggling has severely hurt legitimate businesses in the agriculture sector, according to a group of farm producers.


At the same time, the government has suffered about P64 billion in foregone revenue over the past two years as a result of the rampant smuggling of rice, vegetables, meat and other agriculture products, said the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (Sinag).


The group placed the foregone revenue at P32 billion in 2012 and at almost the same amount in 2013.


Jayson Cainglet, a spokesperson of Sinag, said the group was calling on the government to put more teeth on its anti-smuggling drive to address the adverse impact of the illegal activity on the economy, particularly the agriculture sector.


An umbrella organization of various agricultural groups, Sinag has members from the rice, livestock and poultry, and fisheries subsectors.


Rosendo So, a member of Sinag and director of Titan Agricultural Products Inc., said the estimates of government losses from smuggling were based on a comparison of export data released by other countries and the import data reported by the Philippine government.


“There has always been a significant disparity between what exporting countries report and our [Philippines’] import figures,” So said in a roundtable discussion with the Philippine Daily Inquirer reporters and editors on Wednesday night.


So cited rice, which he said was one of the most commonly smuggled agriculture products.


In 2012, exporting countries reported a total of 1.3 million metric tons of rice sold to the Philippines, but government data showed only 600,000 MT were imported that year, Sinag said.


Cainglet said Sinag suspected that smuggled rice came mostly from Vietnam, India and China.


On vegetables, the most commonly smuggled were onions, which the group suspected may be coming from Taiwan and China.


Cainglet said that pork was the most commonly smuggled meat and that this came most likely from the United States, Canada and several European countries.


Foregone revenue from smuggling and other problems like tax evasion and inefficiency in tax collection are blamed largely for the government’s budget deficit, which stood at P242 billion in 2012.


Cainglet said smuggling was compounding the problems of the agriculture sector, which has already been facing other challenges, including declining tariffs on imported goods, lack of technology and facilities, and huge subsidies enjoyed by agriculture sectors of countries that have been exporting to the Philippines.


“Notwithstanding the gains and various plans envisioned for the agriculture sector, several issues have prevented it from fully realizing its goals,” Cainglet said.


Sinag has called on the Bureau of Customs (BOC), which has a new leadership, to implement more effective measures against smuggling.


The BOC is now headed by Commissioner John Phillip Sevilla, who was appointed late in 2013 to replace Rufino Biazon.


Sevilla, a former finance undersecretary, was assigned to head the BOC as the Aquino administration vowed to institute reforms in the bureau, which has been tagged as the most corrupt among line agencies.


Cainglet said rampant smuggling of rice, vegetables, meat and other products was dragging growth in the agriculture sector, which employed about a third of the country’s workforce.


He echoed observations by economists that the poverty incidence in the country remained significant largely because of the poor performance of the agriculture sector.


Data from the Philippine Statistical Authority showed that growth in the agriculture sector slowed to 1.1 percent in 2013 from an already anemic 2.8 percent in 2012.


The agriculture sector’s growth was much slower than the 7.1 percent for services and the 9.5 percent for industry.


Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan earlier said the Philippines so far had failed to substantially reduce poverty incidence despite robust growth of its economy because of low agriculture productivity.


The Philippine economy grew 6.8 percent in 2012 and 7.2 percent in 2013, becoming one of the fastest-growing in Asia. The country’s poverty incidence, however, remained one of the highest in the region at 25.2 percent in 2012.


Given that the agriculture sector has been accounting for a third of the country’s estimated 40-million workforce, Balisacan said initiatives that would boost productivity and employment in the sector should be pursued.


Balisacan said the government intended to do just that. He said the updated medium-term Philippine Development Plan through 2016, which was expected to be released next month, would include higher government investments in the agriculture sector.


For Sinag, however, development initiatives for the agriculture sector should come along strict measures against smuggling.


Durian Tan, a member of Sinag, said in the roundtable discussion that the group was hoping that the BOC would be able to implement more effective programs against smuggling under its new leadership.


“We don’t know him (Customs Commissioner Sevilla), but hopefully he would be a better performer than the previous commissioners,” she said.


RELATED STORIES


‘Rice smuggling costs PH P7B a year’


Alcala glad ‘David Tan’ has surfaced to answer rice smuggling raps


Rice smuggling, WTO and Philippine law





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Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires


By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst


Bear markets always end. Has this one?


Evidence is mounting that the bottom for gold may be in. While there's still risk, there's a new air of bullishness in the industry, something we haven't seen in over two years.


An ever-growing number of industry insiders and investment analysts believe the downturn has come to a close. If that's true, it has immediate and critical implications for investors.


Doug Casey told me last week: "In my lifetime, the best time to have bought gold was 1971, at $35; it ran to over $800 by 1980. In 2001, gold was $250: in real terms even cheaper than in 1971. It ran to over $1,900 in 2011.


"It's now at $1,250. Not as cheap, in real terms, as in 1971 or 2001, but the world's financial and economic state is far more shaky.


"Gold is, once again, not just a prudent holding, but an excellent, high-potential, low-risk speculation. And gold stocks are about to create a whole new class of millionaires."


Just a couple of months ago, you would have had a hard time finding even one analyst saying something positive about gold and gold stocks—even some of the most bullish investment pros had gone silent.


But that's changing. Case in point: When Chief Metals & Mining Strategist Louis James and I attended last week's Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver, we witnessed quite a few very optimistic speakers.


Take Frank Giustra, for example, a self-made billionaire and philanthropist who made his fortune both in the mining sector and the entertainment industry. He's the founder of Lionsgate Entertainment, which is responsible for blockbuster movies like The Hunger Games, but he was just as heavily involved with mining blockbusters such as Iamgold, Wheaton River Minerals, Silver Wheaton, and others.









More Upturn Advocates


Here's a quick scan of the growing number of voices that think the decline is over, some of which are outright bullish:


"The worst is over with gold. It's time to call your broker." —Frank Holmes, US Global Investors


"Sentiment is as black as night on gold, so I’m actually long on some gold miners."

—Jeffrey Gundlach, bond guru and DoubleLine Capital founder


"We'll see a gradual recovering throughout the year, because all the negative factors are already in the price." —Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank


"Looking ahead, the downside risks seem to be diminishing, and overall we feel that the big shocks we've seen over the last two or three years are done..." —Marc Elliott, Investec


"The mainstream narrative on gold is changing, indicating a possible bottom." —Bron Suchecki, Perth Mint


"Orthodox investments are working on a cyclical peak, as precious metals are working on a cyclical bottom. The big pattern could be fully reversed by February-March, with gold becoming one of the best-performing sectors through the rest of 2014. The advice is to seriously reduce exposure in stocks and bonds and get fully invested in the precious metals sector. This should be completed in the first quarter." —Bob Hoye, Institutional Advisors



"I'm telling you, you've seen the bottom of the gold market," he told the rapt audience at the conference, offering a bet to the Goldman Sachs analyst who claimed gold is going to $1,000.


The stakes: Whoever loses has to stand on a popular street in downtown Vancouver dressed in women's underwear.


Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, stated in a recent interview on CNBC: "The commercial traders are at their most bullish stance since the 2001 low, and they usually get proven right. It's a hugely bullish condition for gold, and I'm expecting a really large rebound.


"The moment we see a major gold producer announce that it's curtailing production or it's going out of business," McClellan continued, "that'll be the moment we mark the low in gold. I expect to have one of those announcements any minute. We're getting down to the production price of gold right now, and they won't continue producing gold at that level for very long."


Are they just guessing? To answer that, first consider the historical context of this bear market—it's getting very long in the tooth:



  • The current correction in gold stocks is the fourth longest since 1879. The decline of 66% ranks in the top 10 of recorded history.



  • In silver, only two corrections have lasted longer—the ones that ended in 1936 and 1983.


Some technical analysts have pointed to positive chart formations, most notably the powerful "double bottom" that can portend a strong upward move. Based on intraday prices…



  • Gold formed a double bottom last year, hitting $1,180.64 on June 28 and $1,182.60 on December 31, a convincing six-month span.



  • Silver formed a higher low: $18.20 on June 28 vs. $18.72 on December 31, a bullish development.



  • Gold stocks (XAU) formed a slightly lower low: $82.29 on June 26 vs. $79.73 December 19, 2103, a difference of 3.2%. However, as our friend Dominick Graziano, who successfully helped us earn doubles on three GLD puts last year, recently pointed out…



  • The TSX Venture Index, where most junior mining stocks trade, has stayed above its June low. In fact, it recently soared above both the 50-day and 40-week moving averages for the first time since 2011.


Meanwhile, Goldcorp (GG) sent a huge bullish signal to the market earlier this month. It decided to pounce on the opportunities available right now, launching a takeover bid of Osisko Mining for $2.6 billion. The company wouldn't be buying now if it thought gold was headed to $1,000.


As Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, says, "It's time to be quietly bullish."


The smart money, like resource billionaire Rick Rule, is not just quietly bullish, though—they are actively buying top-quality junior mining stocks at bargain-basement prices to make a killing when prices rise.


To make sure that you can invest right alongside them, we decided to host a sequel to our 2013 Downturn Millionaires event, titled Upturn Millionaires—How to Play the Turning Tides in the Precious Metals Market .


Back then, we made a strong case for this once-in-a-generation opportunity—but it was still undetermined when the bottom would be in. It looks like that time is now very near, and we believe it's time to act.


On Wednesday, February 5, at 2 p.m. EST, resource legends Frank Giustra, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and Ross Beaty, investment gurus John Mauldin and Porter Stansberry, and Casey Research resource experts Louis James and Marin Katusa will present the evidence and discuss the possibilities for life-changing gains for investors with the cash and courage to grab this bull by the horns.


How do we know the absolute bottom is in? I'll answer that with a quote from a recent Mineweb interview with mining giant Rob McEwen, former chairman and CEO of Goldcorp:


"I'd say we're either at or extremely close to the bottom, and as an investor I'm not prepared to wait to see if the bottom's there because it's very hard to pick it. Because … if you're not taking advantage of it right now, you're going to miss a big part of the move. And when you look at the distance these stocks have to travel to get to their old highs, there's some wonderful numbers in terms of performance that I think we're going to see."


Granted, these voices are still in the minority—but that's what makes this opportunity wonderfully contrarian. After all, once "Buy gold stocks" is investor consensus, we'll be approaching the time to sell.


Our Upturn Millionaires experts believe that our patience is about to be rewarded. And when that happens, gold stocks will be easy doubles—and the best juniors potential ten-baggers.


Don't miss the free Upturn Millionaires video event—register here to save your seat. (Even if you don't have time to watch the premiere, register anyway to receive a video recording of the event.)



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Ayala-Land’s affiliates get go-signal to buy 15% stake in Mandaue project

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MANILA, Philippines — Property giant Ayala Land Inc. has given two of its publicly listed Cebu-focused affiliates the right to acquire a 15-percent stake in a 15-hectare mixed-use city center project in Mandaue that will be developed in partnership with the Aboitiz group.


In a disclosure to the Philippine Stock Exchange on Thursday, ALI said it assigned to affiliates Cebu Holdings Inc. (CHI) and Cebu Property Ventures & Development Corporation (CPVDC) the right to subscribe to participate in the joint venture project with Aboitiz Land.


CHI has the right to acquire a 10 percent economic interest and CPV, 5 percent, of the authorized capital stock of the joint venture company that will be established with Aboitiz Land. This leaves ALI with a direct interest of 35 percent.


“This undertaking will allow the Company to benefit from the local knowledge and expertise of CHI and CPVDC, leading to better efficiencies and possible synergies that will maximize opportunities in the Cebu property market,” ALI said.


Targeted for launching by 2015, this new city center, which is within the vicinity of Cebu’s main business districts is envisioned to feature innovative residential developments and commercial space with retail and office components. It will also have direct access to major road networks and public transport facilities.



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Tags: Aboitz Land , ALI , Ayala Land Inc. , Business , cebu holdings inc. , Cebu Property Ventures & Development Corporation , CHI , CPVDC , Philippine Stock Exchange , property , Real Estate



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Gov’t to focus on exports following 2013 economic gain – Palace

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Communications Secretary Herminio Coloma. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO



MANILA, Philippines – The recent success of the country in the Gross Domestic Product race in Asia has been second only to superpower China.


According to Secretary Herminio Coloma of the Presidential Communications Operations Office, the country’s GDP grew “remarkably” by 7.2 percent, which exceeded target of the National Economic Development Authority’s six to seven percent growth.


Coloma said that the GDP grew to 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, making the country as “one of the best-performing economies” in Asia.


Meanwhile, China posted 7.7-percent economic group last year to lead the region.


He added that NEDA projected that the Philippines would reach its target of 6.5 percent to seven percent.


“We will focus on growing exports, taking advantage of the improving global economy,” Coloma said in a media briefing in MalacaƱang Thursday. “We will also continue to reduce the cost and improve the ease of doing business to increase foreign direct investments.”


Coloma said that the government would improve the relations between the agriculture and industry sectors.


He added that with the manufacturing business in the forefront, the industry sector posted double-digit growth of 10.5 percent for 2013, with a growth of 12.3 percent during the fourth quarter.


“(The) government remains focused on achieving inclusive growth by reducing poverty and increasing social protection,” Coloma said.


RELATED STORIES


PH economy grew by 7.2% growth in 2013


PH stock index keeps gaining over good economic prospects


Citi raises growth forecast for PH



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Tags: Business , China , economy , GDP , Gross Domestic Product , National Economic Development Authority , NEDA , Philippines



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Wednesday, January 29, 2014

PH economy grew by 7.2% growth in 2013

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Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan . INQUIRER FILE PHOTO



MANILA, Philippines–The Philippine economy grew by 7.2 percent in 2013, staying on as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, the Philippine Statistics Authority announced Thursday.


For the fourth quarter alone, the Philippine economy grew by 6.5 percent, slower than the growth rates in the three previous quarters, due to the impact of Supertyphoon “Yolanda.”


In a press conference, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the economic growth last year was driven by consumer and government spending, as well as increased investments by the private sector.


“Indeed growth could have been better have we not been perturbed by calamities,” Balisacan said.


“Nonethess, the Philippines remained one of the fastest growing economies in Asia,” he added.


RELATED STORIES


PH stock index keeps gaining over good economic prospects


Citi raises growth forecast for PH



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Tags: Business , economy , Philippines



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c/o Philippine Daily Inquirer Chino Roces Avenue corner Yague and Mascardo Streets, Makati City, Metro Manila, Philippines Or fax nos. +63 2 8974793 to 94



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