Global markets mostly lower, China up on stimulus hope

A man looks at an electronic stock indicator of a securities firm in Tokyo, Wednesday, April 15, 2015. Shares were mixed in Asia on Wednesday as investors absorbed the news that China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly six years in the first quarter. AP

SEOUL, South Korea— Global stock markets were mostly lower on Friday while stocks in mainland China extended their gains on expectations of further policy easing.

KEEPING SCORE: European markets opened mixed with Britain’s FTSE 100 up 0.4 percent at 7,090.82 and France’s CAC 40 adding 0.1 percent to 5,227.91. Germany’s DAX was down 0.2 percent at 11,979.03. Futures showed that Wall Street was headed for a lukewarm day. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures were both 0.2 percent lower.

ASIA’S DAY: The Shanghai Composite index rose 2.2 percent to 4,287.30 while South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.2 percent at 2,143.50. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.3 percent to 27,653.12. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.2 percent to 19,652.88, while Australia’s S&P ASX 200 was down 1.2 percent at 5,877.90.

CHINA STIMULUS: Stocks in Shanghai continued their gains after data showed that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009 during the first quarter. The data stoked expectations that the country would introduce further stimulus measures to achieve its annual growth target.

ANALYST’S TAKE ON ASIAN MARKETS: “Today looks like being a Friday consolidation for the stock market as traders head into the weekend with little in the way of news scheduled for the Asian region,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

GREEK WORRY: Analysts said Asian markets were little affected by worries that Greece could default on its debts, which shot the country’s borrowing costs higher. The latest jitters followed a report Thursday in the Financial Times that Greece made an “informal approach” to the International Monetary Fund to have its bailout repayments delayed. Many in the markets think the Greek government will struggle to make a payment to the IMF due next month if it fails to reach a deal in negotiations with European creditors.

U.S. DATA: The Labor Department reports on consumer prices for March on Friday. In February, a slight rise in gas costs and broad increases in other categories lifted consumer prices, a welcome sign after three straight months of declines that had pointed to excessively low inflation.

ENERGY: U.S. benchmark crude oil slipped 60 cents to $56.11 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 32 cents to settle at $56.71 on Thursday, refreshing its highest price this year. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell 57 cents to $63.41 per barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar weakened to 118.81 yen from 118.98 yen while the euro strengthened to $1.081 from $1.077.

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ICTSI vying for 2 projects in Africa

MANILA, Philippines–International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI) is bidding for two projects in Africa, a market that the company is keen on developing., according to company chair and president Enrique Razon Jr.

In an interview with reporters following ICTSI’s annual stockholders’ meeting on Thursday, company president Enrique Razon Jr. said ICTSI had placed bids for existing projects in The Republic of Cameroon, in Central Africa, and Mombasa in Kenya.

“Those are the two (projects) so far this year,” Razon told reporters, citing it was the size of these projects and their potential markets that made ICTSI interested in them.

“Kenya is a big market. (The port) has a capacity of more than 1 million containers,” Razon said, adding that the Cameroon facility was of similar size.

The company has been casting its gaze toward Africa given new opportunities opening up. So far, ICTSI has projects Madagascar, Nigeria and Congo. These are among 29 port projects the company has all around the world, with eight in the Philippines.

Despite its diverse footprint, the group’s seven key terminal operations in Manila, Brazil, Poland, Madagascar, China, Ecuador and Pakistan, which grew 10 percent, accounted for 74 percent of the company’s 2014 revenue.

ICTSI booked $1.1 billion in port revenue last year, representing a gain of 24 percent. Its net income hit $182 million, up 6 percent in 2014 over the previous year.

It is setting aside about $530 million in capital expenditure for 2015.

The money will be allocated mainly for the completion of developments at the new container terminals in Mexico and Democratic Republic of Congo, capacity expansion in its terminal operation in Manila, and the start of construction of new terminals in Iraq and Australia.

With regard to ICTSI’s joint venture container terminal development project with PSA International Pte Ltd. (PSA) in Buenaventura, Colombia, the company invested $64.7 million in 2014 and expects to invest $140 million in 2015 to complete phase one of the project.

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Investment banking JV bullish on PH midcaps

MANILA, Philippines–Mid-sized publicly listed firms—as well as those that have yet to go public—face attractive prospects even if the local equities market was to face a downturn because many of them remain undervalued and under-appreciated by investors.

As such, the partners of the newly formed joint venture between India-based Religare Capital Markets and Manila-based FSG Capital believe local stocks would continue to attract foreign and local investors for both primary and secondary issues.

“For sure, you will see funds cycling out of the large caps and moving into the midcaps if the market enters a downturn,” FSG Capital chair and president Mark Frondoso said. “We see that as an opportunity for us in the equities business.”

The new partnership between FSG and Religare, which was sealed Thursday in Makati City, aims to provide investment banking services to mid-sized companies—both listed and unlisted—which may want to raise funds through the capital markets.

The group says they are aiming to address the needs of a small but lucrative niche market that remains underserved by larger investment banking firms and banking giants.

“Markets in the Philippines and around the region are somewhat toppish, I agree,” said Religare CEO Sutha Kandiah. “But we are here for the long term and we want to build relationships with these midcap firms. We’re committed to the Philippine market.”

On Thursday, Religare, a corporate finance and equity capital markets investment bank for fast-growing companies in the Asian region, recently signed a memorandum of agreement with FSG for the provision of investment Banking services.

RCM, which is an Asia-focused institutional equities and investment banking platform and a part of the diversified financial services group Religare Enterprises Limited, received its business representative license from the Securities and Exchange Commission last January 2013.

RCM said the partnership deepens its capabilities and presence in the Philippines off the back of its track record of successful transactions in the Philippines.

Its transactions include acting as joint global coordinator, international bookrunner, international lead manager for Travellers International Hotel Group Inc.’s $474-million initial public offering; joint placement agent for Philweb Corp.’s $50-million offering; co-bookrunner for the $155-million placement of shares in Puregold Price Club Inc.’s share capital; and international co-lead manager for the $65.3-million qualified public offering of STI Education.

RCM is also in the syndicate for the proposed follow-on offering of Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc.

FSG Capital is led by Frondoso, who was formerly the head of Morgan Stanley’s representative office in the Philippines and, before this, an associate director of Barclays Capital based in Hong Kong.

Through FSG Capital and related entities, he acquired the Philippine distressed assets business of Standard Bank of South Africa in 2014 and is also the Philippine partner of Home Credit B.V., a leading global mass market consumer finance provider. He also serves as chair of the investment committee of the Philippine Public School Teachers Association which has more than 160,000 members and a director of the Asian Aerospace Corp.

“My relationship with Sutha spans nearly a decade, and with Religare Capital Markets since 2010,” Frondoso said. “The decision to partner with Religare Capital Markets is the result of a common passion for excellence that is bound by the principles of merit, discipline and efficiency.”

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JG Summit net income up 75% to P18.2B

MANILA, Philippines–JG Summit Holdings Inc., the listed holding company of the Gokongwei family, said profits rose in 2014 on higher sales from its core real estate, and food and beverage units, apart from investments in telecommunications and energy distribution.

JG Summit said in a stock exchange filing Thursday that net income had hit P18.25 billion—up 75 percent over the same period in 2013. It added that total revenues in 2014 rose 22.9 percent to P184.8 billion.

JG Summit said core net income in 2014 hit 20.3 billion—up 48.7 percent year-on-year.

JG Summit said in its filing that earnings were bolstered by the contributions of its associates, which jumped by 217.4 percent to P7.25 billion. This was due to the full-year recognition of earnings in Manila Electric Co. following the purchase of a 21.7-percent stake from San Miguel Corp. last December 2013.

It also received dividend income from its stake in Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. and Jobstreet Malaysia amounting to P5.1 billion—up 55.8 percent.

Breaking down its core business, the company’s Universal Robina Corp. grew revenues by 15.6 percent last year to P96.65 billion.

Cebu Pacific saw a 26.8 percent increase in gross revenues to P52 billion in 2014.

Real estate and hotel revenues, through Robinsons Land Corp., posted a 5.4-percent growth to P17.43 billion due to higher rental revenues.–Miguel R. Camus

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Self-regulatory organizations

Do self-regulatory organizations like the Philippine Stock Exchange and Philippine Dealing Exchange Corp. have the power to impose monetary damages (like actual, punitive or damages) on entities or persons under their regulatory jurisdiction?

A self-regulatory organization (SRO) is an organization or association registered under the Securities Regulation Code that is empowered to make and enforce its own rules among its members or persons associated with members. It is authorized to discipline its members or any person associated with a member through the imposition of fines, suspension or expulsion of membership.

There is no judicial precedent in the Philippines for the question at hand but the fairly recent case of Fiero vs. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, 660 F.3d 569 (2011), is instructive.

Finra is an SRO registered with the U.S. SEC. Like our SROs, it is empowered by law to initiate disciplinary proceedings against its members or their associated persons for violating any Finra rule or securities regulation.

Fiero Brothers, a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. SEC, was a member of Finra. John Fiero was the registered representative of Fiero Brothers. Finra, through its predecessor, NASD, expelled Fiero Brothers, barred Mr. Fiero from associating with any Finra-member firm, and fined the Fieros $1 million for violation of rules and securities regulations.

The Fieros refused to pay the fine. Finra filed a civil case to collect the fine with a state court in New York.

The trial court held that the case was firmly based on ordinary principles of contract law because the Fieros had “expressly agreed to comply with all NASD rules, including the imposition of fines and sanctions” when they voluntarily executed the NASD registration forms. The trial court said “New York state courts have long recognized the right of a private membership organization to impose fines on its members, when authorized to do so by statute, charter or by-laws.”

It also stated that “NASD is not `just a private club,’ but a self-regulatory organization, federally-mandated under . . . the Exchange Act to discipline its members and enforce the federal securities laws as well as its own SEC-approved rules.” It awarded the NASD a judgment of $1,329,724.54.

The Fieros questioned the authority of Finra to enforce the fine in the court.

The Federal Court of Appeals ruled against Finra. While conceding that SROs “have a statutory authority and obligation to ’appropriately discipline’ their members by expulsion, suspension, limitation of activities, functions, and operations, fine, censure, being suspended or barred from being associated with a member, or any other fitting sanction,” the law did not expressly grant them the authority to enforce the collection of fines through judicial action.

The court reasoned out that the “statutory scheme carefully particularizes an array of available remedies, including permissible actions in the federal courts.” This includes express statutory authority for the SEC to seek judicial enforcement of penalties for violation of the law and SEC rules.

However, conspicuously absent from the array of remedies is the power of SROs to enforce fines through judicial action. In the words of the Court, “[i]n contrast, there are no explicit provisions in the statute authorizing SRO’s to seek judicial enforcement of the variety of sanctions they can impose.”

The court rejected the argument that congressional intent to authorize such legal actions by Finra can be implied or inferred from the seemingly inexplicable nature of a gap in the Finra enforcement scheme: fines may be levied but not collected.

According to the court, such “significant under enforcement of the securities laws and Finra rules is hardly the inevitable result of Finra’s inability to bring fine- enforcement actions.” This is because “Finra fines are already enforced by a draconian sanction not involving court action. One cannot deal in securities with the public without being a member of Finra.

When a member fails to pay a fine levied by Finra, it can revoke the member’s registration, resulting in exclusion from the industry. Moreover, where a fine is based on a violation of the Exchange Act, the violator will also face a panoply of private and SEC remedies.”

The Fiero case has persuasive effect in our jurisdiction. Although it did not directly deal with the issue at hand, the morale of the story is that an SRO can only exercise powers as expressly granted it by law.

Unless an SRO is expressly granted the power to impose monetary damages, the answer seems to be that it is powerless to do so, and any damages it imposes on trading participants (brokers) and listed companies can certainly be questioned for having been made without or in excess of jurisdiction. This, indeed, is consistent with our legal system where the courts of law have “exclusive jurisdiction” to award damages.

(The author is former president and CEO of the Philippine Stock Exchange. He is now president of Shareholders’ Association of the Philippines and a senior partner of ACCRA Law Offices. His views in this column are strictly personal. He may be contacted at francis.ed.lim@gmail.com.)

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Marketing political campaigns

Greg Garcia

MANILA, Philippines–Greg Garcia is one of the country’s most respected advertising professionals.

He was a founding director of the Advertising Board of the Philippines, a founding chair of the Creative Guild of the Philippines, a founding director of the Bank Marketing Association of the Philippines, a recipient of the Lifetime Achievement Award of the Creative Guild of the Philippines, and was chosen one of the 20 Mavericks in Philippine Advertising for the past 25 years bestowed by the Association of Accredited Advertising Agencies of the Philippines.

After retiring as chair and chief creative officer of Hemisphere-Leo Burnett in 2000, he handled the political campaigns of some of the biggest names in Philippine politics.

He shares his thoughts about marketing political personalities.

Question: You were in consumer advertising before marketing political campaigns. How do you influence decision-making of specific voters? Do you use the same framework as marketing products or services?

Answer: The same principles are involved: a good narrative, authenticity, and a compelling reason to buy or vote, in the case of politicians.

Q: Say some politicians have approached you. What do you do to assess if you will accept or decline the invitation? Do you do preliminary research before agreeing?

A: First, there’s got to be a high level of trust and authority for me to make decisions. Key people from the circle of the politician can get involved in the discussion of the campaign strategy. But once the strategy is approved, I need to be given enough independence to make decisions and to implement them so we can be nimble in our campaign.

It is important that I work with a pollster I am comfortable with. There really aren’t too many of them around, the really good ones, anyway.

Q: You have been involved in quite a number of political campaigns. In your opinion, what does and does not work in political campaigns?

A: What works in a campaign is to have a message that resonates with the voters. What doesn’t work is to have a campaign based solely on recall.

Q: US President Obama used social media extensively and won against early favorite and more experienced Hillary Clinton. Given that some 90 percent of the population are in the DE income class, will social media play a significant role in the Philippines?

A: Social media is important for data gathering and personalization. It has the potential to get the so-called D&E with the increase in ownership of mobile devices.

The key is how to get users involved in political discussions, what social media is really all about … social activities. The key learning is not to use social media as a microphone.

Q: What has been your all-time favorite political campaign, local or international, so far, and why?

A: I am a big fan of the Obama campaign—the professionalism in using persuasive copy and graphics and the utilization of an effective ground campaign.

Q: You were involved in the Binay for vice president campaign, and he came from behind and won against Sen. Mar Roxas in 2013. What was the turning point that made voters switch preference towards the home stretch?

A: The Binay campaign wasn’t really a switch campaign towards the home stretch, it was effective communication that answered the needs of the moment, and a campaign idea that resonated.

We made effective use of the Makati story (“Ganito kami sa Makati, sana ganito rin sa buong bansa” and “Pinapangako pa lang ng iba, ginawa na ni Binay”) and did well with tacticals that touched on his life story and the Cory connection, and a happy catchy meaningful end campaign “Kay Binay gaganda ang buhay.”

Q: With so much dirt being thrown at Vice President Jojo Binay this early, do you see a similar pattern as when Senator Manny Villar declared his candidacy for President early in the 2013 election? I understand that you were also involved in the Villar campaign.

A: The important thing when your integrity is being challenged is to give the right answers that people will accept, and the ability to quickly change the conversation.

Q: A credible but losing senatorial candidate told me that, to win a national election in the Philippines, you would need to be related or have the same surname as the incumbent, a popular actor or have launched a coup. Is there truth to this? Has there been an outsider who won a national election without these and lots of money?

A: Jack Enrile did not make it. Cesar Montano and Richard Gomez did not make it. Chavit Singson did not make it. Name can give you recall, but it’s your narrative behind the name that’s more important.

Q: If you were to handle the campaigns of the following again, what would you have changed and why? Senator Pia Cayetano, Senator Allan Cayetano, Senator Ping Lacson?

A: None, except for Ping, perhaps. I would focus on his humanity side rather than the tough Ping you know. The “kamay na bakal” theme, which Duterte is also exploiting, has limits in attraction.

Q: Who is your dream future client for president and why?

A: Alan and Ping. They both have integrity and the desire to get things moving in this country—to really improve the lives of everyone. They have the solutions and political will to make it happen.

(The author is chair of marketing training firm Mansmith and Fielders Inc. For the complete interview as well as those with other thought leaders, follow him at www.josiahgo.com.)

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Don't Underestimate This Oil and Gas Driller

Oil's free-fall hasn't been kind to offshore or onshore drillers. A quick look at the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) is evidence of weakness in the industry.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Since the summer of last year, oil has fallen from over $100 per barrel down to to less than $45 per barrel. For the past few weeks though, oil has been on an uptrend. It now stands at around $56 per barrel and investors are clamoring to get back into the very stocks that were sold off over the past several months.

Fueling the recent gain is the news that oil inventories only rose 1.3 million barrels in the latest U.S. data report, the smallest increase seen since January 2nd and far short of the 4.1 million barrels that most analysts had predicted. It's a good sign that we've finally seen the bottom in oil and are now seeing the bounce back off of those previous lows.

While oil could still track down before ultimately heading back up, there appear to be more tailwinds for the commodity than headwinds. The energy sector is beginning to look overbought as evidenced by XLE's RSI rating of nearly 70 so there could be some short term volatility. However, OPEC is rumored to cut back production this summer which could ultimately lift oil above $60 per barrel and permanently off its sub-$50 lows.

Finding a strong oil company amidst the chaos going on with oil prices requires that we identify a few key items. The company needs to have high margins to absorb higher production costs and little or no debt liabilities that could sink an otherwise healthy company. One company that meets these requirements and more is Helmerich & Payne (HP).

This $8.3 billion oil and gas driller hasn't escaped the pain of the oil industry. The stocks performance over the past year is -25%. Looking at it for the past month though, it's up over 21%.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Like the XLE ETF, Helmerich looks overbought with a RSI of 70, but any short term pullback could be a huge buying opportunity for value-minded investors.

Helmerich and Payne is the leading oil and gas driller for the U.S. market constituting a 17% share with Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) being the second largest at 13%. The company has done a good job stacking rigs and as of March 15th, only has 190 active – down from 294 at the start of 2015. Now that the excess capital expenditures have been dealt with, Helmerich should be in a position to grow.

The stock trades at less than 12 times earnings with a long term EPS growth rate of 22.7% giving it a PEG ratio of less than 1 – a strong indicator that the stock could be undervalued. It's also cheaper than the industry average P/E of 16.4 and has higher long term EPS growth expectations as well with the average being 12.7%.

One of the biggest positives the company has going for it is its relatively high margins. It has an operating margin of over 28% – well above that of peers like Nabors Industries (NBR) at just 9%. This allows Helmerich to be flexible when it comes to operating and production costs and can easily absorb the volatility we've been seeing in oil. Helmerich also has almost no long term debt liabilities to speak of at $40 million while cash holdings are in excess of $251 million.

Investors get downside protection in the form of a 3.5% dividend yield as well. While there have been some concerns that the weakness in oil may force Helmerich to cut its dividend, it seems an unlikely scenario given that the company has steadily increased it for the past 42 years and only has a payout ratio of 39%. Given the strength of its balance sheet, I think it's safe to assume that the company will continue paying its dividend out regardless of where oil is trading right now.

Check back to see my next post!

Best,

Daniel Cross

INO.com Contributor - Equities

Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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