Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Gold And Silver: Just K.I.S.S!

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals

Old friends and new guests, thank you very much for the comments and discussions regarding my post last week. One thing was clear… you prefer classic trend line charts! I will try to keep it short and simple from now and on. I will keep Elliott Wave for more liquid and crowd trending markets, like stocks and indices, where they work better.

Gold


Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Last week Gold was very tricky compared to the other Dollar rivals. For example, the Euro and Crude oil are creeping up, while Gold did the opposite and squeezed out buyers. Yesterday, sellers couldn't escape either and got stopped out.

The price touched the downside for the second time and Gold shaped the Descending Triangle pattern which is highlighted in red. A breakout happened today above $1200. It means that we will watch the continuation of an uptrend (highlighted in blue). The target is calculated as a sum of the breakout and the height of the Triangle, which is located at $1246 area. It coincides with the hypothetical second touch point, charted as parallel lines. If price will manage to break above the uptrend, then the next area of interest for bulls is a previous medium term high located at $1307. It’s a nice target from a profit point of view.

Currently the level is $1211. The stop should be set both below today's low at $1199, and at the breakout point at $1200 (around $1195-1197).
The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2.2 ($1195 vs $1246) which is healthy enough. If we pray for $1307, then it will be huge, 1:6! Bon appetite my hungry sharks!

Silver


Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Silver was also cruel to traders on both sides. It first went down and touched the downside, killing longs. I hope market makers don't follow my posts, which would spoil the market plan for all of us, buyers and sellers.

The market picture is still the same. Indeed, the Falling Wedge reversal pattern was disrupted yesterday and the price reversed like a rocket to a new weekly high today. The target is also unchanged from last week's post and is located at $17.10. It equals the sum of the breakout point and the height of the Wedge at the widest area.

The current level is $16.55. The Stop should be set below the break point ($15.97-16.00) around $15.90 level.

The risk/reward proportion is poor; Silver is less liquid and the price soared more than 50¢ already. 65¢ of potential gain, versus 65¢ of potential loss. This is a tricky choice. You could hunt for a medium term peak resistance located at $18.45 (January 2015), which can score you almost $2.00 versus the pain of a 65¢ stop distance (1:3).

Risk is noble, just limit it by the stops.

Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article.This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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Saturday, April 25, 2015

In Search of the Most Efficient Energy & Commodity ETFs

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

I wrote last week about the best oil ETFs. In the process, I discovered an interesting feature of the PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO), of which I had not previously been aware.

Specifically, as I described, other oil ETFs have a practice of automatically rolling into the next month’s oil futures contract when the current month contract expires – even if doing so will cause some price decay, as in “contango,” when the next month’s contract is higher priced than the current months (which commonly happens due to storage costs incurred by the party holding the physical commodity, etc). DBO, on the other hand, designed their ETF to NOT automatically roll into the next month’s futures contract, specifically to address that problem of decay, or “negative roll yield.” Instead, PowerShares uses what it calls an “Optimum Yield” formula to automatically roll into the most attractive near-month futures contract (of the next 13 months). In so doing, DBO thereby claims to optimize the fund’s “roll yield” (whether markets are in a state of contango or the opposite condition, known as backwardation).

As I showed last week, the performance of PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO) vs. two other commonly used oil ETFs (USO and OIL) does indeed show quite consistent outperformance by DBO in almost every single calendar year. Again, you can see last week’s post here if you’re interested in seeing the comparison.

In response to last week’s post, one reader asked whether any other “Optimum Yield”-type funds exist in other sectors. In fact, several broader commodities funds use some strategy to address the “negative roll yield” problem. I’m somewhat baffled as to why OIL and USO seemingly make no attempt to address the issue.

Broad energy futures funds

Here’s a chart comparing 5 energy funds. Again, last week’s post focused on funds focused specifically on oil. These 5 funds also branch into natural gas, gasoline, heating oil, gas oil, etc.

Be advised, all 5 of these “broad” energy funds are extremely small in terms of assets invested. PowerShares (DBE) is by far the largest of the 5, weighing in at about $146 million… still very small compared to the commodities funds discussed below. All 3 of the oil ETFs discussed last week (USO, OIL, and DBO) are well over $500 million in assets.

Energy ETFs - Analysis

I’ve highlighted the best performing fund for each time period. As you can readily see, UBN has the best 1-, 3-, and 5-year returns. UBN’s strategy for addressing the negative roll risk associated with contango is to allow itself the latitude to use futures contracts ranging from 3 months to 3 years.

Now look at the calendar-year returns for these 5 funds.

YTD Returns for JE, ONG, DBE, RN, UBN

As with our analysis of PowerShares Oil ETF (DBO) last week, PowerShares Energy ETF (DBE) comes through as the most consistent outperformer in the group. UBN is not far behind.

As for the others, Barclays’ iPath Pure Beta Energy Fund (ONG) uses a proprietary strategy for mitigating negative roll yield, similar to PowerShares (DBE). JJE and RJN apparently make no attempt to address negative roll yield, as far as I could tell.

For a discussion of tax implications, please see my article from last week.

Broad commodities futures funds

I also looked at broad commodities funds. Among funds with at least $150 million in assets, and with at least a 4-year track record, 4 funds stand out (in terms of having relatively good historical performance). Here’s their past performance:

Commodities ETFs - DBC, GCC, RJI, USCI

DBC has by far the largest ongoing exposure to energy commodities among these 4 funds. If this fund interests you, I’d point out that PowerShares launched a “new & improved” fund (my term) in November 2014, called the PowerShares DB Optimum Yield ETF (PDBC). PDBC sports a 0.59% expense ratio, and is structured as an ETF instead of as a commodity pool or ETN like its competitors. PDBC issues a 1099 instead of a K-1. Finally, PDBC is an actively managed ETF with the same benchmark as DBC. I find PDBC very interesting, and I’ll even go so far as to say, if choosing between the two, I’d choose the newer PDBC for its structure, which is an improvement. ETNs are really unsecured debt obligations of the issuer. ETFs like PDBC are 1940 Act funds, similar to mutual funds.

USCI also looks very interesting. USCI seeks to track the performance of the SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return, which is reconstructed monthly to invest in 14 commodities out of a list of 27, based on price market signals, including backwardation and 12-month price change. The fund/index appears to have the latitude to invest in futures contracts at least 9 months out (based on my observation of current holdings).

RJI apparently makes no effort, as far as I could tell, to address negative roll yield, other than to disclose the existence of the issue in their prospectus.

Here’s the calendar-year returns for these 4 funds. Once again, PowerShares takes the prize for consistency.

Calendar Year Returns for DBC, GCC, RJI, USCI

Conclusion

All I’ve done is to review past performance and learn a little about what each fund’s sponsor describes as their strategy. After this cursory analysis, it appears funds with a strategy to mitigate negative roll yield may in fact be better positioned to deliver consistent outperformance versus funds that make no attempt to solve this technical issue involved in futures trading.

Best,
Adam Feik
INO.com Contributor - Energies

Disclosure: At the time of post publication, this contributor owned Enterprise Product Partners (EDP), but did not own any other stock mentioned. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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Thursday, April 23, 2015

Nasdaq sets new record 15 years after dot-com crash

The Nasdaq exchange smashed its 15-year-old record Thursday, breaking through the old mark set at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000. AP

The Nasdaq exchange smashed its 15-year-old record Thursday, breaking through the old mark set at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000. AP

NEW YORK—The Nasdaq exchange smashed its 15-year-old record Thursday, breaking through the old mark set at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.

The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.42 percent (20.89 points) to finish at 5,056.06, finally making up all the nearly 4,000 points lost in a stunning crash that followed the previous closing mark of 5,048.62 set on March 10, 2000.

A final-hour sell-off prevented the S&P 500 from surpassing its own previous record high of six weeks ago, but the markets overall polished off the session in positive territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 20.42 points (0.11 percent) at 18,058.69. while the S&P added 4.97 (0.24 percent) at 2,112.93.

“We finally took out the resistance area” after weeks of waiting for the Nasdaq breakthrough, said Peter Cardillo at Rockwell Global Capital.

Among leading Nasdaq names, Apple rose 0.8 percent, Google gained 1.4 percent and Biogen tacked on 1.6 percent.

But Facebook slid 2.6 percent as net income in the first quarter plunged 20 percent to $509 million, amid hefty increases in spending on research and share-based compensation.

Texas Instruments, another Nasdaq listing, sank 6.8 percent after projecting second-quarter net income of 60-70 cents per share, below the 73 cents forecast by analysts.

General Motors fell 3.3 percent after first-quarter earnings of 86 cents per share missed analyst forecasts of 97 cents. The company took a $400 million charge to restructure its Russia operations.

Dow member Procter & Gamble fell 1.8 percent as net income for its fiscal third quarter dropped 17.5 percent to $2.2 billion, due in part to the strong dollar.

Time Warner Cable fell 0.6 percent on reports US cable giant Comcast will drop its plan to buy the company due to opposition from antitrust regulators. Comcast rose 0.8 percent.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 1.95 percent from 1.98 percent Wednesday, while the 30-year dropped to 2.63 percent from 2.67 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

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Lower Pinoy Tasty bread price seen

Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO/ ALEXIS CORPUZ

Department of Agriculture squandered P14B--COA

Pacquiao shorts Tidbit no. 25.

Justin Fortune says Mayweather can't keep up with Pacquiao's speed

Ayala Land investing P16B in new BGC project

An old, tragic story

The Avengers event 5

Filipinos among first to see ‘Avengers: Ultron’

People stand behind a police cordon outside a school in Barcelona, Spain, Monday, April 20, 2015. A student walked into the Barcelona school Monday morning and killed a teacher and wounded several other high school students on the 16th anniversary of the massacre of students in shootings at Columbine High School in the U.S. state of Colorado. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

Boy in Spain attack 'burst into tears' after killing teacher

Robbers strike twice in upscale subdivision

SC sides with dolphins, strikes down oil deal

MANILA, Philippines—The price of Pinoy Tasty sliced bread may go down by 50 centavos to P1 next month if trials using a new lower-priced flour from Europe are successful, the Philippine Baking Industry Group (Philbaking) said on Thursday.

Philbaking president Nestor Constancia said they were looking for alternative sources of flour to replace the locally milled Harinang Pinoy, which uses US wheat.—Amy R. Remo

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John Hay developer awaits P1.42B, says locators may stay

Photo by Richard Balonglong/Inquirer Northern Luzon FILE PHOTO

Photo by Richard Balonglong/Inquirer Northern Luzon FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines—Officials of the ousted developer of Baguio City’s Camp John Hay said Thursday the company could not be evicted from the facility until the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) forked over P1.42 billion under the writ of execution issued by a local court.

In a statement, Camp John Hay Development Corp. (CJHDevCo) executive vice president Alfredo Yñiguez III and lawyer Gilbert Reyes also said the state-owned BCDA could not include third-party locators who had acted in good faith in the notice to vacate issued by Judge Cecilia Archog of Baguio Regional Trial Court Branch 6 last April 14.

In a five-page writ of execution, Archog ordered its sheriff to implement the court’s March 27 order that confirmed the “Final Award” by the Philippine Dispute Resolution Center Inc. which directed BCDA to return to CJHDevCo P1,421,096,052 representing the rentals it had paid to the agency, as well as for the Camp John Hay developer to vacate the property.

The judge said the writ of execution must be implemented simultaneously, and that in the event the developer fulfilled its part but BCDA failed on its end, the CJHDevCo may place a levy on BCDA properties to satisfy the arbitral award.

“If respondent (BCDA) cannot return all or part of the obligation, in cash, certified bank check or other mode of payment acceptable to the petitioner, you (the sheriff) shall levy upon the properties of respondent (BCDA) of every kind and nature whatsoever which may be disposed of for value and not otherwise exempt from execution,” said the court order.

Yñiguez, in his letter to the Camp John Hay partners dated April 21—a day after the developer received a copy of the writ of execution and the notice to vacate—reiterated that CJHDevCo was “ready, willing and able to vacate the leased premises immediately or simultaneous with its actual receipt of payment from BCDA.”—Jerome Aning

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Wednesday, April 22, 2015

US stocks rise on housing data, earnings

N

This Jan. 4, 2010, file photo shows an historic marker on Wall Street in New York. US stocks on Wednesday, April 22, 2015, posted solid gains following a big jump in US existing-home sales and a mixed bag of earnings reports from Boeing, McDonald's and others. AP PHOTO/MARK LENNIHAN

This Jan. 4, 2010, file photo shows an historic marker on Wall Street in New York. US stocks on Wednesday, April 22, 2015, posted solid gains following a big jump in US existing-home sales and a mixed bag of earnings reports from Boeing, McDonald’s and others. AP PHOTO/MARK LENNIHAN

EW YORK–US stocks on Wednesday posted solid gains following a big jump in US existing-home sales and a mixed bag of earnings reports from Boeing, McDonald’s and others.

The Dow Jones Industrial advanced 88.68 points (0.49 percent) to 18,038.27.

The broad-based S&P 500 rose 10.67 (0.51 percent) to 2,107.96, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 21.07 (0.42 percent) at 5,035.17.

Total sales of used homes jumped 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 million units in March, the fastest pace in 18 months, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

Dow member Boeing fell 1.4 percent as analysts focused on rising costs for production of its 787 jets rather than a 38.9 percent jump in net income to $1.34 billion.

McDonald’s, another Dow component, tacked on 3.1 percent as it vowed to unveil a turnaround plan in two weeks following another round of dismal results. Net income in the first quarter plunged 32.6 percent to $812 million.

Dow member Coca-Cola rose 1.3 percent despite first-quarter earnings falling 3.8 percent to $1.56 billion due to the strong dollar. That translated into 48 cents per share, six cents above forecasts.

Of 103 companies in the S&P 500 to report so far, 78 have beaten analysts’ estimates, 15 have missed and 10 have come in at expectations, said S&P Capital IQ.

Other companies reporting earnings included Amgen (+0.4 percent), Chipotle Mexican Grill (-7.4 percent), EMC (+3.1 percent), Yahoo (+1.2 percent) and Yum Brands (+4.0 percent).

Google rose 1 percent as it launched its own US mobile wireless service. The service, named Project Fi, will use Wi-Fi hotspots along with the US mobile networks of Sprint and T-Mobile.

Sprint rose 2 percent, while T-Mobile US gained 2.2 percent.

Perrigo, which sells over-the-counter pharmaceutical products such as Sudafed and Claritin, rose 4.5 percent on reports that Mylan is planning to raise its bid after Perrigo rejected an initial offer of $28.9 billion. Mylan fell 2.3 percent.

Visa rose 4.1 percent and Mastercard advanced 3.9 percent on reports that China will open up its bank-card clearing to US firms.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 1.98 percent from 1.92 percent Tuesday, while the 30-year advanced to 2.67 percent from 2.59 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

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Sunday, April 19, 2015

German industrial conglomerate plots PH expansion plan


FROM left: Martin Hayes, President, Managing Director - Robert Bosch (Southeast Asia) Pte Ltd; Peter Tyroller, Member of the Board of Management - Robert Bosch GmbH; Andrew Powell, Managing Director - Bosch Philippines

FROM left: Martin Hayes, President, Managing Director – Robert Bosch (Southeast Asia) Pte Ltd; Peter Tyroller, Member of the Board of Management – Robert Bosch GmbH; Andrew Powell, Managing Director – Bosch Philippines



When one thinks of German companies in the Philippines, automobile firms like Mercedez Benz, BMW or Audi probably come to mind. Or perhaps industrial and consumer chemicals manufacturer Bayer, or maybe even engineering and communications firm Siemens.


But a company like Bosch—which has been in the country for two decades now—is probably not top-of-mind for most consumers.


That may be about to change, if the firm’s top brass will have its way.


Recently, Robert Bosch GmbH management board member Peter Tyroller flew in to rally the company’s local troops to their new goals, and also join them in celebrating the 20th year of the German industrial giant in the Philippines.


He spoke to the media and outlined wide ranging plans for the firm both in the country and around the region, especially in the light of the dynamic economic activity being experienced locally.


More interesting


“Asean is getting more interesting because there are a lot of big things going on here,” Tyroller said, referring to the 10-member-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is in the process of forming an increasingly tighter economic union.


“Talk about more than 600 million people here—that’s a huge market. There’s a fast-growing middle class in this region. Since we are also underway to develop mid-priced products for the mid-priced segment, we are now prepared to cover the potential in the future,” he added.


The Philippines is of particular interest to Bosch, he said, because it is a market of roughly 100 million people that is experiencing an economic rebirth of sorts.


In recent years, the local market has become more affluent to the point of being able to afford more of the premium products that Bosch sells, instead of relying on cheaper alternatives in the past.


“Our philosophy is invented for life and our expectation is we fascinate with our products and we make price-competitive products for market-related products,” said Bosch Philippines managing director Andrew Powell. “And our idea is to have that throughout the Philippines not just in Manila, but also in our business hubs in Cebu and Davao and we want to provide our products and services to all Filipinos.”


“We have a very strong market share in power tools already in the Philippines and that continues to grow exponentially,” he added. “We are already here with automotive products for our automotive aftermarket [products]. We recently launched security systems organization that’s promising to be a very good growth area for us here in the Philippines.”


BOSCH POWER. From left: Tyroller, Hayes and Powell.

BOSCH POWER. From left: Tyroller, Hayes and Powell.



Because the rising economic tide has lifted the boats of more Filipino consumers, so to speak, Bosch is now taking a closer look at its wide portfolio of products to assess which can be introduced into the local market.


Wide portfolio


“We have a very wide portfolio. So we take a look at that, we take a look at market potentials and then we decide how to expand our footprint for that,” Powell said. “That will be our real focus.”


Already, Bosch—which is not publicly listed, but is instead the world’s largest privately owned corporation with 49 billion euros in revenues and over 280,000 employees worldwide at the end of 2014—is looking at making a bigger splash in the Philippine market.


“The big projects, we are a part of it,” Tyroller said. “We are not trying not just to sell a specific product; we are trying to even sell some solutions for public projects. Or we have big projects like the [Philippine] Arena and we have the loudspeaker systems available for [that] projects. And we have the power tools to build them.”


The company’s broad spectrum of products and services—from the automotive sector to consumer goods—allows it to employ an effective cross selling strategy in all the markets where it is present.


“We try to bring not just one division in such a project,” Tyroller said. “We are trying to have one approach that has various divisions providing the right components, the right systems and the right product for those big public projects.”


At the same time, Bosch is also making the most of the world-class Filipino talent pool that is available to it. The company has a business process outsourcing hub based in the Philippines that services the company’s foreign operations and customers, both from within the sprawling Bosch industrial conglomerate and without.


And it is here, in the services sector, where the Bosch executives are most excited for the Philippines vis-a-is the upcoming integration of the Asean markets.


“Asean economic community is important,” said Robert Bosch Southeast Asia president Martin Hayes. “We manufacture the majority of our automotive components in Thailand, we just started in Indonesia and we also have in Malaysia but once there should be zero tariffs around, that would definitely ease the products bringing in to the market.”


Free movement


In particular, the growing Bosch conglomerate is interested in seeing freer movement of labor among the various Asean nations.


“I think there’s a lot to do there,” Hayes said. “I hear in Singapore they are 70 percent completed but I think some of the first thing they need to do is, free travel of Asean members within Asean to aid them basically, and for us, that we can put people in to the right place where we need them within Asean.”


To better compete with its neighbors and to be better able to spread the benefits of economic growth around, the Bosch executives agreed that the Philippines had to work more on improving its infrastructure systems.


PETER Tyroller addresses the employees of Bosch Philippines.

PETER Tyroller addresses the employees of Bosch Philippines.



“[Infrastructure] is one of the critical issues,” Powell said. “I’m looking at the positive side—the domestic growth of consumption here in the country’s where we’re really focusing our efforts because there we see the potential to grow business.”


“The challenges are being fast enough to have our footprint, to have people on board, to get the right people, train the right people, and to build up an attack and trade these businesses into the future,” he added. “I don’t want to mention the traffic, of course, and I also want to mention the language capability. [We have] very competent people here in the Philippines with semiconductor production and that is also another aspect here in the Philippines where we have sub-contractors who are providing the Bosch Group with semiconductors and electronic components which is growing dramatically. We are tapping into that capability also in the Philippines.”


If the company’s plans unfold according to plan, it is not inconceivable for Bosch to join other top-of-mind German brands for Filipino consumers in the not too distant future.



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