Friday, March 29, 2013

US consumer spending, income jump in February






In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013 photo, a customer counts her change after a purchase at Lodge’s store in Albany N.Y. U.S. consumers earned more and spent more in February, helped by a stronger job market that offset some of the drag from higher taxes, according to the Commerce Department, Friday, March 29, 2013. AP



WASHINGTON — U.S. consumers earned more and spent more in February, helped by a stronger job market that has offset some of the drag from higher taxes.


The Commerce Department said Friday that consumer spending rose 0.7 percent in February from January. It was the biggest gain in five months and followed a 0.4 percent rise in January, which was double the initial estimate.


Americans were able to spend more because their income rose 1.1 percent last month. That followed January’s 3.7 percent plunge and December’s 2.6 percent surge. The huge swings reflected a rush to pay bonuses and dividends in December before taxes increased. After-tax income increased 1.1 percent last month.


The jump in income allowed consumers to put a little more away in February. The saving rate increased to 2.6 percent of after-tax income, up from 2.2 percent in January.


Consumers spent more at the start of the year even after paying higher Social Security taxes. The increase, which took effect in January, has reduced take-home pay this year for nearly all Americans receiving a paycheck. Income taxes also rose on the highest earners.


The jump in spending and income suggest economic growth strengthened at the start of the year after nearly stalling at the end of last year. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of economic activity.


Most economists predict the economy is growing at an annual rate of roughly 2.5 percent in the January-March quarter. That would be a vast improvement from the 0.4 percent growth rate in the October-December quarter, which was held back by slower company stockpiling and the sharpest defense cuts in 40 years.


Inflation, as measured by a gauge tied to consumer spending, increased 1.3 percent in February compared with a year ago. That’s well below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, giving the central bank room to keep stimulating the economy without having to worry about price pressures.


One reason the tax increases haven’t slowed the economy is companies have accelerated hiring and are slowly but steadily increasing wages.


Employers have added an average of 200,000 jobs a month since November. That helped lowered the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 7.7 percent in February. Economists expect similar strong job gains in March.


Most other signs point to an economy that is gaining momentum. Businesses are investing more in equipment and machinery, which has given factories a lift after a disappointing 2012.


And the housing recovery appears to be strengthening. In February, sales of previously occupied homes rose to the highest level in more than three years. The gains have helped lift home prices, which have made Americans feel wealthier.


Stock prices have also surged. On Thursday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed at a record high of 1,569. That surpassed the previous record of 1,565 set in October 2007, a year before the peak of the financial crisis.


Markets will be closed when the consumer spending and income report is released on Good Friday.


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Tags: taxes , US Consumer Spending , US Consumers , US economy



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Don't Gamble, Own the Casino Instead


"Gamblers always die broke, young man," whispered the grizzled, old casino lizard at the Blackjack table as I gathered my meager winnings.


It wasn't very nice to hear: A recent college graduate, I had just earned a small sum during my first visit to a casino. But that advice ended up being among the wisest and most foresightful I have ever heard.


Soon after I met the old man, I read comments from billionaire casino owner Steve Wynn: "The only way to win in the casino is to own one." His words still resonate with me.


I thought to myself "Money lessons come from the most unexpected places." Here was a successful casino owner and a hard-core gambler essentially giving the same advice -- don't gamble and remember that the only way to win is to own the casino. I have never had interest in casino games since.


Anytime I feel the urge to gamble in the financial markets or casinos, my mind returns to the old gambler's advice. Just picturing that man's face and thinking about how much he may have lost during his lifetime is enough to squelch any lingering gambling desire.


But I have a strong attraction to commodities and derivatives. Combining the idea of owning the casino with my interest in commodities led me to what I consider the greatest casino in the world: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).


While not a casino in the traditional sense, a tremendous amount of betting and gambling goes on within its jurisdiction.


Founded in 1898, the CME has grown to become the world's largest futures exchange. After a 2007 merger with the Chicago Board of Trade, the CME Group (Nasdaq: CME) was formed.


The CME now trades several types of financial instruments such as interest rates, equities, currencies and commodities. It also handles alternative investments such as real estate and weather derivatives. There are more options and future contracts traded on the CME than any other exchange in the world.


So how is the CME Group looking as an investment right now? Is it time to "own the casino?" Here's a closer look...


The company is building on 5-year annual revenue growth of 10.7%. However, revenue dropped in 2012 by more than 11% to $2.9 billion. This is due to the competition formed from the Intercontinental/New York Stock Exchange merger and the 2011 collapse of MF Global Holdings, a futures broker involved in a trading scandal.


But I think these issues will soon work out as traders slowly feel more secure. The gross margins of the CME Group are a mind-blowing 97% and net margins are respectable at nearly 31%. The balance sheet looks solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of just above 13%. The stock is currently yielding 3% with 5-year dividend growth of 21%.


Other than recent slowed revenue growth, I like the fundamental numbers and technical picture. Shares have soared about 26% this year, recently climbing past $63. However, the stock has since fallen back, setting up an ideal buying opportunity.



Risks to Consider: Greater competition and the fallout from the MF Global scandal have hurt the CME Group. But I think revenue will soon return to normal growth. There is a tremendous amount of money on the sidelines waiting to get back into the market, and when it does, the CME Group will benefit. However, no one knows the future.


Action to Take -- The CME Group is an ideal opportunity "to own the casino." This casino actually serves a real economic purpose for farmers and other producers who use it to manage market risks. I like the stock as a "buy" right now with a stop-loss at $59 and an 18-month target price of $70.


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Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/StreetauthorityArticles/~3/Yb7tGoN-YCQ/dont-gamble-own-casino-instead-463409



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Thursday, March 28, 2013

Tokyo stocks, euro up in holiday-hit trade





TOKYO – Japanese shares rose in quiet regional trade on Friday while the euro enjoyed a pick-up as concerns over Cyprus eased after the island’s bank’s reopened to relative calm.


Lenders in the Mediterranean nation began trading Thursday for the first time since a controversial bailout was agreed, with the first capital controls of their kind in the eurozone blocking a bank run that analysts feared could ripple across region.


Investors were also eyeing tensions on the Korean peninsula, as North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered preparations for strategic strikes on the US mainland and military bases after US stealth bombers flew training runs over South Korea.


In the afternoon Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index was 0.42 percent higher, while the market is up almost 20 percent since the start of the year.


“There is no direction or momentum to trading today, as most players are satisfied with the last three months of gains, and see few reasons to take a last-day risk with so many participants missing,” said Kenichi Hirano, a market analyst at Tachibana Securities.


Markets in Hong Kong, Sydney, Wellington, Singapore, Jakarta, Manila and Mumbai were closed for the Easter holidays.


In other markets Seoul gained 0.67 percent, while Taipei was up 0.29 percent and Shanghai lost 0.14 percent.


In forex trade, the euro edged up to $1.2830 from $1.2814 in New York late Thursday, while it bought 120.67 yen from 120.64 yen — with some support coming from upbeat German retail sales data.


The single currency has been on a downward roll as traders fret about the situation in Cyprus, which this week agreed a rescue plan with its creditors that includes a levy on bank deposits over 100,000 euros.


There had been fears ahead of the reopening of the country’s banks that savers would rush to take out as much money as they could — and lead to a knock-on effect in other troubled economies.


Eventually there was little panic, soothing market jitters slightly.


However, the euro’s rebound was limited as analysts said the Cyprus crisis was still not over, while Italian politicians struggle to produce a governing coalition more than a month after elections despite the economy being in dire straits.


The dollar weakened to 94.11 yen, from 94.12 yen, ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting next week that is expected to see the launch of more aggressive easing by the central bank.


Traders will also have an eye on meetings of the European Central Bank and Bank of England.


Wall Street provided a healthy lead, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high thanks to growing confidence in the US economy, while the Dow, hit yet another all-time high itself.


Market watchers credited steadily improving US data, solid corporate earnings and continued high liquidity from the Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures.


Gold was at $1,596.00 an ounce at 0400 GMT compared with $1,602.29 late on Thursday.


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Asia stocks modestly higher; Nikkei, yen slip






People walk past an electronic board showing the Nikkei 225 index, outside a securities company in Tokyo. AP



BANGKOK—Asian stock markets were mostly higher Friday as momentum carried over from yet another record high on Wall Street.


The Standard and Poor’s 500 index closed at a record Thursday, driven by more encouraging data on the US economic recovery. The government said the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the October-December quarter, slightly better than previous estimates. The revision reflected stronger business investment and export sales.


South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.7 percent to 2,006.41. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4 percent to 2,244.79. Taiwan’s TAIEX also advanced. Markets in Hong Kong, India, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore for holidays.


In Japan, however, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index slipped marginally to 12,331.44 as the yen leveled off against the dollar and the government released figures for February showing the country’s jobless rate edging up while industrial production fell slightly.


Newly appointed central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, has pledged to work with the government to end decades of growth-inhibiting deflation. His outspoken calls for action have raised hopes for results — but analysts said they may also have created unrealistic expectations for a turnaround.


“Unfortunately, the markets’ expectations of the new Governor are so high that they will be almost impossible to meet, let alone beat,” said analysts at Capital Economics in a market commentary.


In Europe on Thursday, markets responded positively to the calm reopening of Cyprus’s banks. Banks in the Mediterranean island nation were shut for nearly two weeks as the government negotiated a rescue loan from international lenders to prevent the financial system from collapsing. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 all closed higher Thursday.


Italy’s political uncertainty will also remain in the spotlight. Following inconclusive elections around a month ago, the country is still without a government, and that’s raised concerns over its future economic path. Italy is the third-largest economy of the 17 countries that use the euro.


The Standard and Poor’s 500 index closed at a record Thursday, surpassing its previous record close of 1,565.15 set in October 2007. The Dow, which surpassed its previous all-time high at the start of the month, also rose.


The Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.4 percent to close at 14,578.54. The S&P 500 advanced 0.4 percent to close at 1,569.19. The Nasdaq composite index added 0.3 percent to 3,267.52. U.S. stock markets will be shut for the Good Friday holiday. Thursday was the last trading day of the first quarter.


The New York Mercantile Exchange, where benchmark oil is traded, was closed for the Good Friday holiday.


In currencies, the euro rose to $1.2827 from $1.2822 late Thursday in New York. The dollar fell to 94.07 yen from 94.13 yen.


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Tokyo stocks give up early gains by break





TOKYO–Tokyo stocks lost early gains Friday morning as investors took their bets off the table in low-volume trade with many regional and overseas markets closed for public holidays, dealers said.


The benchmark Nikkei 225 index slipped 0.04 percent, or 4.52 points, to 12,331.44 by the break, while the Topix index fell 0.60 percent, or 6.22 points, at 1,030.56.


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Tags: economic indicator , holiday , Japan , Nikkei Index , Stock Activity , Stock Market , Tokyo , Topix index



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U.S. jobless claims jump 16,000 to 357,000


The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits jumped by 16,000 last week, the second straight weekly increase. But the longer-term trend in layoffs remained consistent with an improved job market.


Applications increased to a seasonally adjusted 357,000 for the week ending March 23, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's up from 341,000 the previous week, which was revised slightly higher.


The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 2,250 to 343,000. Even with the gain, the average is only slightly higher than the previous week's five-year low of 340,750. Economists pay closer attention to the four-week average because it smooths out week-to-week fluctuations.


First-time applications are a proxy for layoffs. They have been declining steadily since November. At the same time, hiring has accelerated, lowering the unemployment rate in February to a four-year low of 7.7 percent.


Unemployment benefit applications surged during the recession as companies slashed millions of jobs. The number of people seeking aid averaged only 320,000 a week in 2007. That figure soared to 418,000 in 2008 and 574,000 in 2009.


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But as layoffs and firings eased, applications for unemployment aid slowly but steadily came down. They fell to 459,000 in 2010, 409,000 in 2011, and 375,000 last year. Through the first 12 weeks of this year they are averaging roughly 353,000.


The total number of people receiving some kind of unemployment aid is also down sharply. Nearly 5.5 million people were receiving unemployment aid as of the week ended March 9, the latest data available. That's up roughly 87,000 from than the previous week but still well below the 7.2 million from a year earlier. The data on total unemployment benefit recipients are not seasonally adjusted and are volatile.


Hiring is up, too. Employers have added an average of 200,000 jobs per month since November. That's nearly double the average from last spring. And economists expect similar job gains in March, in part because of the steady decline in layoffs.


The economy has been showing other signs of strength. U.S. home prices rose 8.1 percent in January, the fastest annual rate since the peak of the housing boom in the summer of 2006. And demand for longer-lasting factory goods jumped 5.7 percent in February, most in five months.


Still, the job market and the economy have a long way to go back to full health. The United States has 3 million fewer jobs than it did when the Great Recession began in December 2007. And home prices are down 29 percent from their peak at the height of the housing bubble in August 2006.(AP:WASHINGTON)


By PAUL WISEMAN

AP Economics Writer



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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Oil steady as Cyprus braces for reopening of banks





BANGKOK — Oil prices paused Thursday after climbing more than $4 in less than a week ahead of the reopening of banks in financially troubled Cyprus.


Benchmark oil for May delivery was up 3 cents to $96.61 per barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added 24 cents to close at a five-week high of $96.68 on Wednesday.


The oil market was tempered by caution before Cypriot banks reopened for the first time since March 16. The banks were shut as political leaders negotiated an emergency bailout to prevent a banking collapse. The contentious deal reached Monday will force losses on bigger depositors, which many analysts have said could spark a crisis of confidence in banking across the 17 countries that use the euro.


However, in the prior four sessions, oil has gained $4.13, driven by strong U.S. economic data. Later Thursday, the U.S. releases its final reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product and the latest weekly claims for unemployment benefits.


The American Petroleum Institute said that crude supplies for the week ending March 22 rose by 3.7 million barrels. Ample supplies tend to keep a lid on energy prices.


Brent crude, used to price many kinds of oil imported by U.S. refineries, was up 30 cents to $109.99 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.


In other energy futures trading on the Nymex:


— Wholesale gasoline fell 0.5 cent to $3.107 a gallon.


— Heating oil rose 0.3 cent to $3.04 a gallon.


— Natural gas advanced by 1.3 cents to $4.081 per 1,000 cubic feet.


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