Billionaire Buffett hints at successor after 50-year milestone

Investor Warren Buffett greets shareholders while touring the exhibit floor prior to holding the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, in Omaha, Neb., Saturday, May 4, 2013. Buffet hinted Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015, that he has found a successor. AP

WASHINGTON, United States – Billionaire investor Warren Buffett hinted Saturday he had found a successor to replace him as he reflected on 50 years in charge of his Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate in an annual letter to shareholders.

The 84-year-old investment guru, ranked by Forbes as the world’s third richest man with a fortune estimated at $72.3 billion, said his replacement as CEO would be “relatively young” and recruited from within.

“Our directors believe that our future CEOs should come from internal candidates whom the Berkshire board has grown to know well,” Buffett remarked.

“Our directors also believe that an incoming CEO should be relatively young, so that he or she can have a long run in the job.

“Both the board and I believe we now have the right person to succeed me as CEO –- a successor ready to assume the job the day after I die or step down.

“In certain important respects, this person will do a better job than I am doing.”

The identity of Buffett’s likely successor has been a guessing game for years.

However the octogenarian tycoon known as the “Oracle of Omaha” bullishly declared he has no intention of giving up the reins anytime soon.

“I truly do feel like tap dancing to work every day,” he said.

Buffett said he had proposed that his son Howard succeed him as a non-executive chairman in order to guard against a botched appointment.

“My only reason for this wish is to make change easier if the wrong CEO should ever be employed and there occurs a need for the Chairman to move forcefully,” he wrote.

50 years of gains

Buffett’s letter outlined another year of gains for his group, with Berkshire Hathaway outperforming the S&P500 index: up 27% compared to the S&P500’s 13.7%.

In half a century, the contrast is even more impressive. A dollar invested in Berkshire in 1964 would now be worth $1.826 million; the same dollar invested in the S&P500 would be worth just under $11,200.

Buffett compared his acquistion of obscure textile manufacturer Berkshire half a century ago to picking up a “discarded cigar butt that had one puff remaining in it.”

“Though the stub might be ugly and soggy, the puff would be free,” he remarked. Berkshire is now one of the world’s largest conglomerates whose companies manufacture everything from “lollipops to jet airplanes.”

Buffett, meanwhile, paid tribute to vice chairman Charlie Munger, 91, for helping effect Berkshire’s transformation.

“It took Charlie Munger to break my cigar-butt habits and set the course for building a business that could combine huge size with satisfactory profits,” Buffett said.

The billionaire painted an optimistic portrait of the US economy, noting that while unbroken gains were unlikely, America could look forward to a bright future as it pulls clear of the Great Recession.

“The dynamism embedded in our market economy will continue to work its magic,” he wrote. “Gains won’t come in a smooth or uninterrupted manner; they never have.

“And we will regularly grumble about our government. But, most assuredly, America’s best days lie ahead.”

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Acer exec visits Manila for first time, leaves impressed by locals

ACER Aspire Switch 12

A company official worth his salt visits the markets where his firm maintains a presence in order to help local teams strategize and expand the business.

Often, officials go on these trips to look into the problems of local teams and identify new game plans and policies to further raise revenues and market shares.

But for Oliver Ahrens, senior vice president of multinational hardware and electronics firm Acer Inc., his first trip to the Philippines last week marked a departure from his normal experience.

“Usually, I only come to a country when there is a need to. The Philippines is an exemption. The Philippines is, really, for us something like a poster boy for business,” Ahrens says during a briefing last week.

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“If you ask me, the Philippines has, in Asia Pacific, the best go-to-market strategy, and the best new production introduction (NPI) process. Positioning products, and communicating these to the distribution channels—nobody is doing it as good as the Philippines. And this one of the reasons for our high market share here. For me, it is also a learning trip to understand a little bit more how [things are] done here,” he explains.

True enough, Acer Philippines Inc. expects to sustain its strong momentum this year, with revenues projected to grow by a double-digit pace anew, while its market share in key product segments could further rise to cement its foothold in the local market.

“The Philippines for us is a center of excellence where other markets can learn,” Ahrens says, adding that the country is considered to be one of the fastest growing, even if it is not the biggest, markets in the Asia Pacific.

According to Ahrens, the company is also now looking at the business models being employed in the Philippines, particularly for new product introductions, which can be replicated in some countries in the region where Acer’s market share appears to be lower.

For the whole Asia Pacific region, Acer’s market share ranged only from 8 to 11 percent.

“We want to bring up the market share in the Asia Pacific. If we achieve at least half of the market share in the Philippines, then we would be happy with that,” Ahrens says.

In the Philippines, Acer managed to grow revenues by 15 percent last year, driven largely by the personal computer (PC) segment, which accounted for about 20 percent of the total market share in the country, says Manuel Wong, Acer Philippines managing director.

In the notebook computer segment alone, Acer grabbed a 40-percent market share, reaffirming the company’s position as the No. 1 overall branded PC vendor in the country.

Acer’s presence in the smartphone and tablet category, however, remained marginal at 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively. But company officials are bullish of their prospects of being able to raise these market shares to about 4 percent for smart phones, and more than 5 percent for tablets.

To help raise sales and market shares, Acer will be launching new products in the country this year. While declining to disclose specific models, Ahrens says that Acer will bring in new 7-inch and 10-inch tablets in the country, as well as gaming tablets to cater to a growing market segment.

This year, the company’s traditional business segments are still expected to contribute 90 percent of the company’s revenues, according to Ahrens. But Acer will be bringing in two-in-one and new gaming products, and will further expand the offerings for the upper middle classes given the growing demand from this segment.

Manuel Wong and Oliver Ahrens of Acer

Asked if Acer still has plans to resume assembly operations in the Philippines, Ahrens says that the company is “open” to the idea, but that such a move “must make commercial sense” before the electronics firm commits to it.

Although the volumes are enough to justify a manufacturing facility here, the demand from the local market however, can be more efficiently supplied by its other facilities located elsewhere in the region.

Acer has production facilities in China, India, and Indonesia.

Acer first entered the Philippine market in 2003, managing the marketing, sales, and support services for a full range of personal computer systems from notebooks to peripherals.

Key products included Aspire and TravelMate mobile PCs, Aspire and Veriton desktop PC series; DLP projectors; LCD monitors; servers and storages; Acer smartphones; and the Iconia series of tablets and touch books.

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Students’ app promotes disaster preparedness

SCREENGRAB of the game showing what to do in different situations.

With the onslaught of typhoons “Yolanda” in 2013 and “Ruby” last year, the need for disaster preparedness in the country has become more pressing than ever.

A group of students has seen this as an opportunity to address the issue in a unique yet engaging way.

The Save the Day mobile application introduces the concept of disaster preparedness in a fun way through games featuring cute animated characters that allow the user to cope with emergencies or disaster situations.

The app was developed by Ateneo de Manila University management students Nicole Patricia Nuguid, Francis Eldon Mabutin, Elaine Co, Janala Mikha Cudala, Merolyn Joy Cruz, Arianne Lizz Teobengco, Jan Erika Gannaban, Sheryl Lim and Lorianne Halago.

Available on Google Play and as a browser game, Save the Day was conceived by RKI Creatives, a company established in July 2014 through Ateneo’s leadership and strategy course, focusing on social entrepreneurship.

Personal experience

Drawing from their own personal disaster experiences, the creators of the app say they want to provide innovative solutions to social concerns, such as mitigating the effects of calamities.

“It’s disaster risk-reduction made fun,” Mabutin says. “It’s an application aimed at educating users, especially those aged 5 to 19, on what to do when disaster strikes.”

Nuguid says she hopes to disabuse people of the notion that only adults should be concerned with disaster preparedness.

“It’s so scientific, it’s something very serious or frightening, that [young people] avoid thinking about it,” she tells the Inquirer. “When the time (disaster) comes, that’s only when we act on it.”

When Yolanda made landfall, people didn’t know what a storm surge was, Mabutin says.

“They weren’t prepared,” he says. “With our app, we try to educate them: ‘What is a storm surge; what should you do in case there’s a warning for it?’”

According to the app’s Facebook page, its developer RKI Creatives—with RKI standing for “Realidad, Kalidad, Integridad”—aims to provide creative solutions to social issues, especially disaster preparedness, while upholding core values, such as grounding in reality, quality of work, integrity, creativity and innovation.

Aspiring to be a major player in the mobile gaming industry, RKI Creatives says it is “committed to delivering entertaining games that promote social awareness among mobile users, both children and adults.”

Social entrepreneurship

The team won recognition and a cash prize for Save the Day during the Social Entrepreneurship Venture Day Manila 2014 on Nov. 28, 2014. The contest took place on the third day of the social enterprise conference organized by Peace and Equity Foundation with Ateneo–John Gokongwei School of Management and IE Business School of Madrid, Spain. It was held at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Quezon City.

The contest organizers seek to recognize efforts in addressing social concerns through innovative business ideas with an impact on society.

Ten groups were recognized for their business plans that not only addressed a social problem, but also were sustainable endeavors that would benefit communities here and abroad.

Personal experience

Some finalists submitted plans to produce goods sourced directly from farmers, helping to create job opportunities for them as well as their communities. The products include BeHearty banana flour, Friggies health fruit juice, Gourmet Keso and Gatas Carabao Milk of GK Enchanted Farms, Kape del Sol premium coffee from Davao, Akaba Design accessories made from Inabel cloth from Ilocos Norte, and Maruyog Charms’ handmade accessories crafted with Guimaras root crops and stones believed to possess restorative powers.

Other finalists submitted programs and online innovations that would assist various sectors.

The Friendly Restaurant app from OurCityLove of Taiwan is a database of establishments that may be described as “disabled friendly.” The companies included in the database are those that hire physically challenged people to survey areas and collect information themselves, providing them with livelihood.

Campus tours

Another app is Sprout Agriculture—an online platform that encourages communication and feedback among the “agri-entrepreneur” members, helping them to better market or improve their agricultural products.

There is also an app devoted solely to the Association of Women in Small Business Assistance—an alliance of nongovernment organizations in Indonesia supporting low-income women entrepreneurs engaging in traditional handicraft.

Since the competition, RKI has been working on improving Save the Day by correcting glitches in the system, Nuguid says. The team has also been promoting the app by going on campus tours.

RKI Creatives encourages people to learn more about disaster preparedness by playing the game online or downloading the app. Search for Save the Day RKI on Google Play or visit SavetheDayRKI on Facebook and @SavetheDay_RKI on Twitter.

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China’s central bank cuts rates again to boost economy

In this Friday, Feb. 27, 2015, photo, a Chinese family walk past a China Dream billboard, showing messages pushed by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration on display in Beijing. China on Saturday, Feb. 28, cut interest rates for the second time in three months, adding to signs that Chinese leaders are worried that the economic slowdown is deepening too sharply. AP

BEIJING–China’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months on Saturday, adding to signs that the country’s leaders are worried the economic slowdown is deepening too sharply.

The People’s Bank of China announced a rate cut on one-year loans by commercial banks by 0.25 percentage point to 5.35 percent. The interest rate paid on a one-year deposit was lowered by 0.25 point to 2.50 percent.

Rates were last cut on Nov. 22. The new rates take effect Sunday.

Last year, China’s economic growth fell to 7.4 percent, the lowest since 1990. It is expected to decline further this year, and a steep economic decline can raise the risk of politically dangerous job losses.

The latest round of cuts follow a string of tax reductions and other measures aimed at propping up growth. The government cut business taxes last week and has announced a pay hike for civil servants.

The lower rates are expected to reduce financial costs for state companies and are a signal to state-owned banks to boost lending to them.

Economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy has declined steadily over the past two years, mostly as a result of government efforts to steer the economy to more self-sustaining growth based on domestic consumption and to reduce reliance on trade and investment.

Disclaimer: The comments uploaded on this site do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of management and owner of INQUIRER.net. We reserve the right to exclude comments that we deem to be inconsistent with our editorial standards.

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Will there be a Marijuana ETF in 2015?

As more and more states either allow medical marijuana to be sold or outright legalize the drug, investors interests in the business of marijuana have grown. Countless outfits have popped up on the public markets, mainly on the OTC or over the counter exchange, touting the idea that they will be the next big marijuana conglomerate which will dominate sales of the drug throughout the US.

This 'possible' market opportunity for marijuana based companies in the US could be rather large, if all 52 states opened their doors to the drug by making it legal. (Just thinking about this idea makes dollar signs pop into my head.) But as of now, the business is still small, with only a few states completely legalizing the drug and just a few others allowing it to be used for medical reasons.

The combination of a 'possibly' massive business opportunity and the current small opportunity which exists means a large number of the companies whom are trying to make it, will eventually fail. Additionally, it means that at this point there is really no market leader in the industry which investors can get behind and back financial, with any reasonable amount of confidence.

Since most investors would agree (and honestly you are delirious if your don't) that the majority of the marijuana stocks being traded on the open markets today will eventually fail, ultimately costing investors thousands or even millions of dollars, the idea that a marijuana ETF will be created has gained a lot of traction among marijuana investors for a few years now.

But, unfortunately I don’t believe the markets will see marijuana ETF's in 2015. I will go even further and say that I don’t believe the markets will see marijuana ETF's in 2016. I will go way out on the limb and say that I don’t think the markets will EVER see a marijuana based ETF and I will explain why.

First, the business of marijuana, while it has the potential, is not yet large enough for an ETF. The stocks that the marijuana ETF would have to buy are nearly all penny stocks. This increase in buy-side demand would push the share prices ridiculously high in a very short time frame, which would make it very difficult for those companies to produce returns that would warrant their new valuations.

Next, as I mentioned above, a very large portion of these marijuana business's are going to fail. That massive number of failures would hurt the overall ETF's performance. Bad performing ETF's don’t last very long because they don’t make money for the companies who operate them.

Lastly, the overall demand for a marijuana ETF would be rather low. I know what marijuana stock investors are thinking, "that I am nuts", but here is why I say this. Some of the best performing, markets crushing stocks of all-time are tobacco stocks.

Just for some perspective; $1 invested in the average American industry in 1900 would have grown to over $38,000 by 2010, not bad. But $1 invested in food related business would have turned into over $700,000 by 2010. That same $1 invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 was worth $6.3 million in 2010. Massive returns for investors.

By here is why I mention this, guess the number of tobacco ETF's?

Zero

How about sinful stock ETF's, you know the ones that own a combination of tobacco stocks, casinos, alcohol companies?

Zero (There is an ETF which owns casino operators and other gambling related companies called Market Vectors Gaming (NYSE:BJK))

That’s right; zero ETF's which focus on the best industry which someone could have invested in during the past 100 years. Furthermore, the sinful stock companies, and it's hard to deny that marijuana stocks don’t fall under that umbrella, also doesn’t even have its own ETF.

So again based on the information we have about marijuana stocks, which is very little, and the financial industries lack of interest in opening ETF's which operate in 'sinful' business's, I find it very difficult to believe that a company will soon be offering a marijuana ETF.

Matt Thalman

INO.com Contributor - ETFs

Disclosure: This contributor held positions in Apple and Microsoft at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,212 up around $3 an ounce while settling last Friday at 1,205 finishing up $7 in a relatively quiet trading week. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors are looking at gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return. Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide. Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as money is moving back into the S&P 500 sending prices to all-time highs as I don’t see any reason to own gold despite all of the worldwide problems.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract are up $.5 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 16.66 an ounce settling last Friday at 16.32 finishing up about 40 cents for the trading week with extreme volatility so make sure that you use the proper amount of contracts risking only 2% of your account balance as I like to trade the mini contract which is $10 a cent versus $50 a cent on the large contract as high volatility has also entered the S&P 500 and the currency markets in recent weeks. As I talked about in previous blogs I believe silver is now being used as a currency due to the fact that interest rates around the world are so low that investors are looking at silver as a currency replacing traditional paper currencies as nobody wants to own anything in Europe. Many of the commodity markets continue to head lower however silver remains choppy at the current time as I am still recommending investors to sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to develop.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the May contract are down 140 points this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 63.90 after settling last Friday at 64.66 up around 70 points on strong exports as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines despite the fact that prices are near 6 month highs. Cotton prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher however the chart structure is poor currently as that’s the reason I am currently neutral as poor economies around the world are continuing to pressure many commodities. If you have been reading any of my previous blogs I am bearish most of commodity markets as I do think worldwide deflation is going to be a problem as China still has huge supplies of cotton but planting expectations are around 9.7 million acres which is a 12% decline from 2014 which has pushed up prices in the last several weeks but demand in my opinion will start to weaken in the next couple of months so sit on the sidelines and wait for a better chart pattern to develop.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the May contract are up $.7 in Chicago this afternoon currently trading at 10.34 a bushel hitting a 6 week high trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday around 10.02 finishing higher by around 32 cents continuing its bullish trend as we head into the growing season. The weather in Brazil and the rest of South America has been excellent as harvest is around 25% completed producing another record crop however there is a strike currently in Brazil which has supported prices in the short term as export estimates came out this week & were very good however I am on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to occur as I might not get involved in this market until April or May. The U.S dollar is hitting an 11 year high having very little impact on prices in the short term as estimates of next year’s acres are all over the board between 84-88 million acres as that will be confirmed next month giving us a better picture of the possible crop size in 2015 as carryover levels are still near historical highs but at the current time there is very little fundamental news as I think prices will continue to remain choppy for the next 4-6 weeks.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the May contract are up 5 cents this afternoon after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.93 a bushel currently trading at 3.93 unchanged for the trading week while trading at its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m recommending investors to sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to develop The commodity markets in general still look very weak in my opinion as the U.S dollar is hitting an 11 year high once again as that’s also a negative influence on grain prices as harvest is underway in South America as traders are keeping an eye on the next USDA crop report which comes out in 2 weeks as estimates for planting is around 88 million acres which is a reduction of 3 million acres from 2014. The corn market in my opinion fundamentally speaking is not as bearish as the soybeans as less acres and expanding herds will create more demand for corn, however if we produce between 13.5 – 14 billion bushels in 2015 I think prices could head much lower so I’m still recommending farmers to have a hedging strategy in place as deflation has been a real concern worldwide.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the May contract are up $.09 this Friday afternoon trading around $5.09 a bushel after settling last Friday at 5.07 around unchanged for the trading week still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’m recommending a short position in wheat while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 5.43 a bushel risking around $.33 or $1,650 per contract plus slippage and commission. The next level of support is the contract low of around 4.90 which was yesterday’s low as growing conditions are excellent throughout much of the Great Plains as ample supplies should come during harvest sending prices even lower as the trend is your friend in the commodity markets and the trend in this market is clearly to the downside as prices have fallen quickly as concerns about Russia cutting exports has waned as there is very little bullish fundamental news to support prices except for the fact at the current time prices are oversold.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the May contract are up 4 cents this Friday afternoon in Chicago still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at $2.73 finishing the week up about $.5 at 2.78 as I have been recommending a bearish position when prices broke $3 a bushel and if you took that original trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at $2.79 still risking about $.1 or $50 per contract plus slippage and commission as this trade seems to be coming to an end. Oat futures did hit a fresh 2 ½ year low on Wednesday before rallying sharply in the last 2 trading sessions as the reason I was recommending this trade if you remember was due to the fact that the original risk was only about $400 which meets criteria in my opinion as prices have suddenly stalled. I am disappointed in this trade as I thought prices would continue to slide but if you are stopped out move on and look at another market that is beginning to trend.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the May contract settled at 130.65 while currently trading at 122.40 down about 800 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 137 level as prices continue to sell off as ideal weather conditions are pressuring prices. Orange juice prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a yearly low in yesterday’s trade selling off sharply in the prior 4 trading sessions as the frost possibility in the state of Florida are starting to fade as the commodity markets in general still remain pessimistic, despite the fact that crude oil prices may have formed a possible bottom in the short term. As a commodity trader I am a trend follower and the trend in orange juice is to the downside but make sure you place your stop loss above 138 risking around 1600 points or $2,400 per contract from today’s price levels plus slippage and commission as the chart structure will not improve until late next week.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Japanese Yen Futures

The Japanese Yen in the March contract are trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside currently trading at 8377 as I’ve been recommending selling the Japanese Yen when prices broke the 8400 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 8470 risking about 100 points or $1,250 per contract plus slippage and commission as the Japanese Yen is a very large contract with big price swings and high risk. The next major level of support is around 8300 which was the low on February 11th and if prices can break that level I think you could retest the contract low of around 82.00 as quantitative easing in Japan continues to pressure the Yen in recent years as no country around the world wants a strong currency while at the current time the U.S dollar is the king trading near 11 year highs. The reason I took this trade was the fact that the trade met criteria as the risk/reward was in my favor in my opinion and the chart structure was outstanding at the current time of the breakout while risking 2% or less of your account balance on any given trade as a proper risk management technique.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Sugar Futures

Sugar prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside currently trading at 13.72 finishing down over 50 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position when prices closed below 14.37 while then placing your stop above the 10 day high at 15.19 risking around 150 points or $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar prices have hit another multiyear low as weather in Brazil has been ideal for growing conditions as worldwide supplies are still large while the Brazilian Real remains very weak against the U.S dollar also contributing to the recent weakness as the chart structure will start to improve next week. Remember as a commodity trader you must follow the trend as the path of least resistance is the correct way to trade in my opinion especially over the long haul.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the May contract are currently trading at 141 a pound hitting another round of contract lows this week as I have been recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 169 as the chart structure is terrible because of the fact that prices have dropped for 9 consecutive trading sessions as the weather in Brazil is not as much of a concern as ideal conditions are still persisting in many key coffee growing regions. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 152.90 down over 1000 points for the trading week as many the commodity markets continue to move lower as the U.S dollar is hitting an 11 year high once again as it doesn’t look like a back-to-back drought situation will occur in Brazil this year. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as the risk currently is 2800 points or $10,500 per contract plus slippage and commission as coffee is a very large contract controlling 37,500 pounds in one contract as the trend still remains bearish but if you missed this trade sit on the sidelines because the risk is too high as you have missed the boat.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: AWFUL

Should You Add To Your Losing Trades?

This rule is extremely important and I witness it being abused constantly creating tremendous loses that are sometimes difficult to come back from. Never add to a losing position because if the position continues to go against you and now you have added even more contracts which are all losing money your account will suffer loses much more than 2% and in some case adding positions and never getting out of a losing trade has wiped peoples trading accounts down to zero because of 1 or 2 bad trades. Remember always play for another day you will have losing trades and the good traders manage losses and move on to the next possible trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

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US stocks slip after weaker growth, end best month since 2011

February proved to be a strong month for US stocks, even though it ended in downbeat fashion. AP

February proved to be a strong month for US stocks, even though it ended in downbeat fashion.

Major stock indexes closed lower on Friday, capping a week of subdued trading that still delivered a couple of new highs for the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index. It also brought the Nasdaq composite within striking distance of its March 2000 high.

The Nasdaq notched the biggest monthly gain at 7.1 percent. But the S&P 500’s 5.5 percent performance marked its best monthly increase since October 2011, and a turnaround from its 3.1 percent slide in January. The Dow rose 5.6 percent for the month.

Trading was listless for much of Friday as investors balanced encouraging reports on housing and consumer confidence against data showing that the US economy grew at a slower annual rate in the final months of 2014 than previously estimated. Oil rose, recouping some of its losses from a day earlier. Technology stocks were among the biggest decliners.

“Many people are trying to figure out what to do, taking some profits when they can. We saw that over the past couple of days with tech stocks,” said JJ Kinahan, TD Ameritrade’s chief strategist. “It’s a wait-and-see attitude.”

The Dow ended down 81.72 points, or 0.5 percent, to 18,132.70. That’s 0.5 percent below its most-recent high of 18,224.57 on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 slid 6.24 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,104.50. The index is down 0.5 from a high of 2,115.48 on Tuesday.

The Nasdaq fell 24.36 points, or 0.5 percent, to 4,963.53. The index has been inching closer to crossing the 5,000-point mark, something it hasn’t done since March 2000 at the height of the dot-com era. It’s now within 86 points of that peak.

The three main US stock indexes are all up for the year.

The current bull market, now in its sixth year, has been powered by strong corporate earnings growth and low interest rates, which make stocks more attractive relative to bonds. Strong job growth and improving consumer confidence have also encouraged traders, despite signs of sluggishness in Europe and elsewhere.

Some of that confidence appeared shaken on Friday, when the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the October-December quarter, weaker than the 2.6 percent estimate last month. The latest growth projection represents a major slowdown from the previous quarter, which produced the strongest growth in 11 years.

Other economic bellwethers were more upbeat: An index of pending home sales, an indicator of potentially completed sales, rose in January and the December figure was revised higher to show a smaller decline. Separately, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment slipped this month. It remains at the highest level in eight years.

“The market does not have a clear catalyst to either cause it to sell off or to surge forward, and we’re getting a little expensive from a valuation perspective,” said David Heidel, regional investment director at US Bank Wealth Management.

Investors should get a better sense of the economy and consumers’ willingness to spend next week, when automakers report their February sales figures and the government issues its monthly update on hiring.

All told, eight of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with technology stocks notching the biggest decline. The sector is up 4.2 percent this year. Consumer staples rose the most. Those stocks are up 2.9 percent this year.

Several energy companies were among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500.

Southwestern Energy fell $1.27, or 4.8 percent, to $25.08, while NRG Energy lost 79 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $23.98. Chesapeake Energy slid 52 cents, or 3 percent, to $16.68.

Benchmark US crude rose $1.59 to $49.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude rose $2.53 to $62.58 a barrel in London.

US oil prices appeared to stabilize in February around the $50 a barrel mark. That’s made a key variable of business more predictable for investors, Kinahan said.

“That’s really the kind of thing that gives stability to the stock market,” Kinahan said.

US government bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 1.99 percent from 2.03 percent late Thursday.

In metals trading, gold edged up $3 to $1,213.10 an ounce, silver fell seven cents to $16.51 an ounce and copper was flat at $2.72 a pound.

In other energy futures trading, wholesale gasoline rose 6 cents to $1.768 a gallon, heating oil jumped 16.3 cents to $2.30 a gallon and natural gas rose 3.7 cents to $2.734 per 1,000 cubic feet.–Alex Veiga

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Largest PH business group backs call for peace in South

MANILA, Philippines–The Philippines’ largest business organization has joined the rest of the local business community in supporting President Aquino’s call for peace in Mindanao.

In a statement, Alfredo M. Yao, president of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), said the country could best honor the sacrifice and bravery of the 44 Special Action Force (SAF) commandos who died in a clash with Moro rebels in Mamasapano, Maguindanao province, on Jan. 25 by bringing peace and prosperity to Mindanao.

“The best way to promote peace is to expose our brothers and sisters in the affected areas in Mindanao to the prosperity that we enjoy and which they should be sharing,” Yao said.

“If we are distracted in securing peace in Mindanao, we will isolate our brothers and sisters in the affected areas from benefiting from the gains of the economy,” he said.

Alfredo Yao. PHOTO BY LYN RILLON

Rebuilding trust

Yao also called on all parties to have an open mind so that the rebuilding of trust and confidence for the peace process would continue.

He urged the leadership of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to help in the rebuilding of public trust and confidence in the group.

“Let us give peace a chance. Besides we will never solve the problem of poverty if we do not have peace and order,” Yao said.

Supporters of peace

Earlier this week, seven business groups reaffirmed their support for the Aquino administration as well as the peace process with the MILF amid growing calls for President Aquino’s resignation and for an all-out war in Mindanao over the Mamasapano tragedy.

Signatories to the joint statement were the Cagayan de Oro Chamber of Commerce and Industry Foundation Inc.; Employers’ Confederation of the Philippines (Ecop); Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (Finex); Makati Business Club (MBC); Management Association of the Philippines (MAP); Mindanao Business Council; and the Philippine Business for Social Progress (PBSP).

The business groups said they were extending their “utmost respect and sympathies” to the families of the 44 SAF members who were killed in Mamasapano.

The groups, however, cautioned the public against allowing “political manipulation to take advantage of legitimate emotion and grief, to the point of trumping reason and endangering the gains we have made over the last few years.”

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Customs seizes P21M worth of ‘ukay-ukay’

MANILA, Philippines–Customs authorities have seized five container vans of smuggled used clothes or “ukay-ukay” worth P21 million which arrived from South Korea.

The Bureau of Customs (BOC) said that the shipments, during spot inspection, were found to contain used clothing instead of the items declared in the import entires.

The shipments, which arrived at the Manila International Container Port between October and November 2014, were declared as blankets, bed sheets and caps, the BOC said in a statement on Friday.

Four container vans were consigned to PJK Expresser Door to Door Corp., SEC Bldg., Edsa, Greenhills, Mandaluyong, which turned out be a bogus company and address.

The other container van was consigned to Arnel U. Figuerra of 501 East Tower PSC Center Exchange Rd., Ortigas, Pasig.

Upon investigation, operatives discovered that PJK Expresser does not hold office at the given address while Arnel Figuerra is not connected with the business establishment occupying the address given in Ortigas.

BOC issued a warrant of seizure and detention on all shipments for violation of the Section 2503 (Undervaluation, Misclassification and Misdeclaration in Entry) of the Tariff and Customs Code of the Philippines which is penalized under Section 2530.

The importation of used clothing is also in violation of Republic Act No. 4653 which prohibits the importation of used clothing and rags.–Tina G. Santos

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Why The Last Trading Day Of February Is That Important

Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere! I would like to share with you a little ritual that I go through at the end of every month. This monthly ritual is not a little happy dance I do (although I do a happy dance when it has been a very good month). This monthly ritual is not very technical, it's very visual and one that you can do in a matter of seconds using the MarketClub charts. You will see right away what I am talking about when you watch today's video.

Many traders are superstitious and like routines and little rituals. I first ran into this when I became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I used to watch with amusement as certain members of the exchange would have a special way they would enter the trading floor. Whatever their ritual was it had to be the same way every trading day otherwise in their mind it would be a bad trading day.

I've also seen members when they're on a winning streak not change their clothes for days. I know this all sounds a little bit crazy, but many traders around the world have their own little rituals. One trader I used to know kept a rabbit's foot in his pocket for good luck and would not make a trade unless he had the security of that old rabbit's foot.

My trading rituals compared to Mr. Rabbit Foot are pretty normal in comparison.

Now, I am not saying you have to carry a rabbit's foot in your pocket or just go through a doorway in a certain way to be successful. What I am saying is you should form your own trading habits and rituals and try to keep them as consistent as possible. They say that man is a creature of habit (no offense to our female members, it is just a figure of speech). So here is your challenge, create your own habits and superstitions and see how your trading improves.

Today, I'm sharing with you something that I do on a monthly basis. Now I have other rituals that I go through, but for today's purposes I'm going to focus on the last trading day of the month.

In today's video, I will focus on this one ritual and how it can be applied to the DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ, gold, crude oil and the US Dollar. I'll also be taking a look at the weekend trading strategy and seeing which stocks are worth trading with the "52-week High on a Friday rules."

Do you have a trading ritual that you would like to share? If so, I invite you to leave your comments below this post. If you have any questions about the markets, now is the time to ask them.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Every success with MarketClub,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

Co-Creator, MarketClub

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Gold And The King: The True Story Of Opposites

Dear INO.com Readers,

Recently, I have heard a lot of arguments about the correlation between major financial instruments and I decided to make special report for you to give some idea about their actual relationships.

For today's analysis, I chose Gold, WTI Crude Oil ("black" gold) and the Prime Currency's DXY Index (King). I would guess all of you track these instruments from time to time to check the precision of your financial "compass". Most important here is to find out how sensitive Gold price is to fluctuations in Oil and Dollar value. To check that, let's get down to our comparative historical dynamics charts depicted in different time periods.

The 90's look flat compared to wild present days, only Oil managed to make a huge 80% spike in 1990, rising from the $20 level up to the $40 area. During those years, Gold and the Dollar index showed good and quite constant negative correlation, making opposite curves and charting ellipses. It worked nicely up until the crisis 2008 year, both instruments, by turns, had been changing sides and keeping an accurate inverse relationship. Oil is less predictable, first, it was between Gold and the Dollar index correlation, but still positive with Gold and negative with the Dollar index, then in 1996 and in 1999-2001 it was in direct relationship with the Dollar index but rest of the time Oil was back to normal inverse relationship, therefore bipolar is the right definition for Oil.

Lucky and Intelligent Trades!

Aibek Burabayev

INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

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PSEi slips on profit-taking

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The local stock barometer slipped for the second session in a row Friday as the recent run-up to record highs tempted investors to lock up some gains from large-cap stocks.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) lost 33.82 points or 0.44 percent to close at 7,730.57. For the week, the index shed 94.82 points or about 1.2 percent.

The day’s decline was led by the financial and property counters, which both slipped more than 1 percent. The holding firm and services counters were also sluggish.

Value turnover for the day amounted to P7.57 billion. There were 74 advancers, which were overwhelmed by 92 decliners, while 53 stocks were unchanged.

The PSEi was weighed down most by BDO and ALI, which both slid by more than 2 percent while SM Prime, SMIC, Metrobank, Bloomberry and AC all fell more than 1 percent. On the other hand, Jollibee rebounded by 3.7 percent while MPIC gained by 2.88 percent. URC, Megaworld, EDC and DMCI also firmed up.

Local stockbrokerage DA Market Securities said that despite posting record highs 17 times this year, the PSEi’s upward momentum had notably slowed down since mid-February. The brokerage said investors were rotating their money to other stocks in search for more attractive values.

DA Market said that with the index treading in uncharted territory, next major resistance would be at 8,000 and 8,500 while initial major support would be at 7,485. Doris C. Dumlao

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Xurpas gains controlling stake in technology firm

Newly listed mobile content provider Xurpas Inc. has bagged a deal to acquire a 51-percent stake in local technology firm Storm Flex Systems for around $4.3 million.

The deal will enable Xurpas to expand its distribution capability to physical goods and services, from that of purely digital.

Storm has developed a proprietary platform that enhances the employee benefits system of some of the country’s leading conglomerates, business process outsourcing and fast-moving consumer goods companies in Metro Manila and Cebu, Xurpas said in a disclosure to the Philippine Stock Exchange Friday.

The platform allows employees of any company that has signed up with Storm to exchange their current employee benefits into products and services—from gadgets and dining, private carpool system, doctor consultations on demand, all the way to donations for charitable causes.

The platform seeks to enhance employees’ satisfaction, enabling them to become more productive, by giving them the power of choice. Also, their employers may substantially improve their ability to attract, retain and excite people.

Xurpas president and chief executive officer Nico Jose Nolledo noted in a statement how Storm, since its inception, had demonstrated “truly exponential growth,” with revenue increasing fivefold from 2013 to 2014.

Storm intends to use the proceeds from the deal to accelerate growth locally, and branch out to other markets in Southeast Asia. It currently serves 15,000 client employees—a number that is expected to double this year after the deal with Xurpas.

This is the second and the largest acquisition so far by Xurpas after its successful initial public offering in December 2014.

Trading on Xurpas was halted for an hour Friday morning following the disclosure on the deal. Doris C. Dumlao

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Meralco acquires Pampanga distributor

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) has secured a majority stake in a company that manages an electricity cooperative (EC) in Pampanga.

In a disclosure to the Philippine Stock Exchange, Meralco said it subscribed to P300 million worth of stock in Comstech Integration Alliance, Inc. (Comstech), which manages the Pampanga II Electric Cooperative Inc. (Pelco II).

The shares “represent 60 percent of the authorized capital stock of Comstech,” Meralco said.

On Feb. 26, Meralco signed the shareholders agreement (SHA) with Comstech to seal the power retailer’s equity investment in the electric cooperative. Under the deal, Meralco agreed to subscribe to 3 million new shares to be issued by Comstech valued at P100 a share.

Comstech was awarded the investment management contract (IMC) for Pelco II in February 2014.

On the company’s website, Pelco II said it serves seven towns and municipalities: Mabalacat, Guagua, Lubao, Porac, Sta. Rita, Sasmuan and Bacolor.

On April 8, 1979, the members of Pampanga Electric Cooperative Inc. agreed to split the cooperative into two—Pelco I and Pelco II.

Pelco II was incorporated on April 23, 1979 in Bacolor, Pampanga. It started formal operations on May 26, 1979, initially serving 28,696 customers in six districts.

It expanded its operations when it took over the new coverage areas of Guagua Rural Electric Service (GRES) and the Lubao Municipal Electric System (LMES) in July 1980 and November 1981, respectively. Later, Pelco II’s service coverage expanded to seven municipalities of Pampanga.

Around that time, Pelco II’s main office was located in Sta. Filomena, Guagua, Pampanga.

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PSEi pulls back

THE LOCAL stock barometer slipped for the second session in a row on Friday as the recent run-up to record-highs tempted investors to lock up some gains from large-cap stocks.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index lost 33.82 points or 0.44 percent to close at 7,730.57. For the week, the index shed 94.82 points or about 1.2 percent.

The day’s decline was led by the financial and property counters which both slipped by over 1 percent. The holding firm and services counters were also sluggish.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. has said that US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s recent “dovish” remarks may be good for the short term but would only cause more market volatility.

One bright spot at the market was the industrial counter, which rose by 1.67 percent on the back of gains posted by Jollibee and URC. The mining and oil counter also fell.

Value turnover for the day amounted to P7.57 billion. There were 74 advancers which were overwhelmed by 92 decliners while 53 stocks were unchanged.

The PSEi was weighed down most by BDO and ALI which both slid by over 2 percent while SM Prime, SMIC, Metrobank, Bloomberry and AC all tumbled by over 1 percent. BPI and PLDT also contributed to the decline.

On the other hand, Jollibee rebounded by 3.7 percent while MPIC gained by 2.88 percent. URC, Megaworld, EDC and DMCI also firmed up.

The notable gainers among non-PSEi stocks were Lucio Co-led Puregold and Cosco, which both rose by over 1 percent. Unioil surged by 15.7 percent.

Local stock brokerage DA Market Securities said that despite posting record highs for 17 times this year, the PSEi’s upward momentum had notably slowed down since mid-February. The brokerage said it’s rife for investors to rotate their money to other stocks in search for more attractive values.

DA Market said that with the index treading in uncharted territory, next major resistance would be at 8,000 and 8,500 while initial major support would be at 7,485.

With technical indicators pointing to overbought levels, DA Market said the market was now indicating a “downward bias to possible consolidation/correction.”

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First Pacific hikes stake in Roxas Holdings to 50.9%

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HONG Kong-based conglomerate First Pacific Co. Ltd. has boosted its interest in listed sugar group Roxas Holdings Inc. to 50.9 percent from 34 percent mostly by buying treasury shares worth P1.7 billion.

In a press statement on Friday, RHI said a total of 241.78 million treasury shares were sold to a unit of First Agri Holdings Corp. (FAHC), a subsidiary of First Pacific (FP), at P7 per share. Bundled with this was the purchase by FP- which is led by Filipino businessman Manuel V. Pangilinan – of 35 million shares held by RHI group chair Pedro Roxas and related parties, thus hiking FP’s stake to 50.9 percent.

Roxas & Company Inc. also increased its equity investments in RHI, buying 33.1 million shares or P232 million from the market to maintain 30 percent control.

The additional P1.7 billion equity raised RHI’s total equity by 25 percent from P6.93 billion to P8.63 billion.

In a statement, Roxas said RHI would use the additional equity for plant upgrades, possible mergers and/or acquisitions as well as to diversify its revenue and income base by expanding its ethanol business and developing power co-generation.

“FP and RHI will continue to work for the consolidation of the industry in order for it to survive. We need to immediately bring plant utilisation and efficiencies up,” Roxas said.

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• Pedro Roxas




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